605
FXUS64 KHGX 290452
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WE REMAIN WITHIN A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO, WITH CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RISEN INTO THE
LOWER 80S AS OF 330 PM CDT, PERHAPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER
THAN EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHT OVERPERFORMANCE OF CLOUD COVER.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALSO HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH AREA-WIDE. WINDS SHOULD RELAX WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING THIS EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANSION
OF LOW STRATUS THAT WILL WORK TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE COOLING. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW THAT OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 70 (75 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST). SOME OVERNIGHT
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
TO MITIGATE ANY WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE FOG. STILL, TYPICALLY
PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND SUNRISE.
IT'S EFFECTIVELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST TOMORROW AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST AND THE MID 80S FURTHER INLAND. THE
PREVAILING MIDLEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY ROBUST SHORTWAVE ISN'T
EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY (MORE ON THAT BELOW). ANOTHER NIGHT OF
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S IS ON THE CARDS YET AGAIN.
CADY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WITH MID-UPPER TROF MAKING FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE
AREA, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW - BUT STILL ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP
THURSDAY. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SE TX AND SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN
EVENTUALLY PUT ON THE BRAKES AS IT LOSES SUPPORT (UNLESS MESOSCALE
DRIVEN) FOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED FOR A SHORT WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT, BUT
WITH POOLING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ITS SOUTH RETURNING BACK INLAND,
SOUTHERN AND SWRN PARTS OF THE CWA CAN PROBABLY EXPECT SOME CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES ON SAT. AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKING SHAPE TO OUR
WEST, A BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS, BUT NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE, CHANCES OF SHRA/TSTMS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY & MONDAY. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS OUT THERE AT THE MOMENT WITH A COMBO OF
LLVL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER
PRECIP WEST OF THE REGION. THINK THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BECOME MORE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT, MORESO NORTH OF A
MATAGORDA- LIBERTY LINE. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT AS WE HEAD INTO
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AND BACK TO VFR. PRIMARY
AVIATION ISSUE FROM MID MORNING THRU MID EVENING WILL BE GUSTY SSE
WINDS IN THE 15-27KT RANGE. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SEAS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVSY
FOR CURRENT WINDS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON BAY AND ADJACENT
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND CAUTION FLAGS ELSEWHERE. WE'LL LIKELY NEED
A CONTINUATION OF EITHER SCEC/SCA FLAGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SPEEDS/SEAS FLIRT WITH CRITERIA. CHANCES FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES WILL BE ON THE MODERATE/HIGH SIDE AND WATER LEVELS
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS/SEAS...ALTHOUGH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE - ESPECIALLY FRI-SAT AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 85 72 86 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 82 75 82 / 0 0 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ330-350-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ335-355.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page