132
FXUS64 KHGX 291727
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1227 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SE/E CONUS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AS CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY MID-LOWER LEVELS SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS RAINFALL
TODAY, THOUGH MODEST PWS AND WEAK IMPULSES PRECEDING THE LOW WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES FROM BEING ZERO. THIS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ENVIRONMENT.
WARM CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON THE TAP FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/70S. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM
THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. PAIRED WITH THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR FAIRLY COMFORTABLE WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD START TO SEE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS. A 25-30 KNOT LLJ SETS UP OVER SE TEXAS, WITH THE JET
AXIS POSITIONED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. PARAMETER SPACE FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOWS OVERALL LOWER CIN THAN THE DAY PRIOR WITH
GREATER INSTABILITY. HREF HAS ML CAPE RANGING FROM 1300-2200 J/KG
WITH SFC CAPE AROUND 1500-2700 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR CLIMBS ABOVE 35
KNOTS, THOUGH CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER LOW. MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES RANGE FROM 7.0-7.5 DEGC/KM, THOUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL AND WBZ
LEVEL ARE RATHER HIGH. HREF MODEL UPDRAFT HELICITY PAINT BALLS
GREATER THAN 25M2/S2 LARGELY KEEP NORTH OF OUR CWA, WITH ONLY A
FEW INDIVIDUAL MODELS SHOWING CLUSTERS NEAR THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/PINEY WOOD AREA. BESIDES SHORTWAVES IMPULSES, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING SE TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE 06Z HRRR PLACES THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT NBM/HREF. BROADER
MODELS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IT'LL SLOW/STALL, WITH CONVECTION
PETERING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY, THOUGH
IT'S EXACT POSITIONING IS LESS CERTAIN FOR THE MOMENT.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AREAS NORTH OF I-10/US-59 UNDER A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THESE AREAS ARE ALSO
UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) TO MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE. STILL, THE SEVERE RISK IS
OVERALL NOT VERY LARGE GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AVAILABLE, SO
IT'S LIKELY THAT WE MAY ONLY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
ONLY A FEW STRONGER STORMS PULSING UP. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
NOW LOOKS MORE CREDIBLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEAK COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
03
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
WITH MID-UPPER TROF MAKING FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE
AREA, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW - BUT STILL ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIP
THURSDAY. SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A WEAK, SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES CLOSER AND EVENTUALLY INTO
SE TX AND SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MAKE IT CLOSE TO THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN
EVENTUALLY PUT ON THE BRAKES AS IT LOSES SUPPORT (UNLESS MESOSCALE
DRIVEN) FOR A FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH. SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED FOR A SHORT WHILE NORTH OF THE FRONT, BUT
WITH POOLING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ITS SOUTH RETURNING BACK INLAND,
SOUTHERN AND SWRN PARTS OF THE CWA CAN PROBABLY EXPECT SOME CONTINUED
RAIN CHANCES ON SAT. AS THE NEXT UPPER TROF TAKING SHAPE TO OUR
WEST, A BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS, BUT NOT COMPLETELY
ELIMINATE, CHANCES OF SHRA/TSTMS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY & MONDAY. 47
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG. MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
AFTER SUNSET, AND REMAIN IN PLACE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ELEVATED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST TOMORROW EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA.
CADY
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON APR 28 2025
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED SEAS. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVSY
FOR CURRENT WINDS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON BAY AND ADJACENT
NEARSHORE WATERS...AND CAUTION FLAGS ELSEWHERE. WE'LL LIKELY NEED
A CONTINUATION OF EITHER SCEC/SCA FLAGS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS SPEEDS/SEAS FLIRT WITH CRITERIA. CHANCES FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES WILL BE ON THE MODERATE/HIGH SIDE AND WATER LEVELS
WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS/SEAS...ALTHOUGH
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE - ESPECIALLY FRI-SAT AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS CLOSER TOWARD THE COAST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HOUSTON (IAH) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
GALVESTON (GLS) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...CADY
MARINE...47
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