909
FXUS64 KHGX 292252
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
552 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NW TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE
REMAINED THE STORY TODAY. THESE CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT CONFINED TO THE 70S, WITH PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT, SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS BUT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
INHIBITED BY ELEVATED WINDS.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS A ROBUST
MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PROVIDING A
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
APPEARS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIRES MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED DISCRETE
STORMS (AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. SB INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG, LIMITED
INHIBITION, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 35
KNOTS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP. HIRES MODELS ALSO DEPICT THE APPROACH OF A MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NW THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS,
BUT A BRIEF SPIN-UP CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. AS SUCH, SPC
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE A
FEW ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CADY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
CONDITIONS WILL STAY A BIT UNSTABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. WE CAN
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS, MAINLY
OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION. AS WE DAYTIME HEATING
RAMPS UP, EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHER POPS RESIDING OVER AREAS EAST OF I-45
AND NORTH OF I-10. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON THURSDAY, AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ON FRIDAY, THERE MAY BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A
SHORTWAVE, VORT MAXES, AND THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY. THE HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS LIKELY
TO BE CLOSER TO THE MID 80S RANGE. THE UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. ONE GOOD THING FOR THE WEEKEND IS EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE LOW 80S.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE NEXT MONDAY AS DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TRENDING DOWN TO AROUND 7-10 KT OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FILTER IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AGAIN
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR SITES ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-45 CORRIDOR.
WINDS AROUND ~3K FT WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KT BEGINNING AROUND 06Z AS
A LLJ DEVELOPS OVERHEAD, WHICH WILL KEEP CEILINGS FROM DROPPING
TOO LOW OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO VFR BY THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS (BY 17Z). THE LLJ REMAINS OVERHEAD
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY (MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10) LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE MORNING HOURS DRIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD, WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED WITH A VCSH AT MOST SITES.
THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN OUR
ATTENTION TURNS TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN SITES AS SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCES ARE
FOR UTS WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED WITH A PROB30 FOR TS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, MVFR CEILINGS WILL
BE FILTERING IN ONCE AGAIN AS WE MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AFTER 06Z/THURSDAY.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SEAS COULD BRIEFLY RISE 7 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. EXPECT BAY WATERS TO BE CHOPPY AS
WELL. CAUTION FLAGS AND ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAYS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS,
IN PARTICULAR DURING HIGH TIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LEVELS RISE TO
AROUND 3.5 FEET ABOVE MLLW. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE AVOID GOING INTO THE WATERS IF RED FLAGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE
BEACHES.
WINDS WILL RELAX ON THURSDAY AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 87 71 90 / 0 40 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 85 73 88 / 10 10 20 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 82 76 83 / 10 10 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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