065
FXUS64 KHGX 300445
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1145 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
CLOUDY CONDITIONS, WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO OUR NW TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE
REMAINED THE STORY TODAY. THESE CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY KEEP LOWS OVERNIGHT CONFINED TO THE 70S, WITH PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S. MUCH
LIKE LAST NIGHT, SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS BUT FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE
INHIBITED BY ELEVATED WINDS.
THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS A ROBUST
MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PROVIDING A
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT
APPEARS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
HIRES MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT THE FORMATION OF SCATTERED DISCRETE
STORMS (AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS) DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. SB INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG, LIMITED
INHIBITION, ABUNDANT MOISTURE, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 35
KNOTS SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP. HIRES MODELS ALSO DEPICT THE APPROACH OF A MORE ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS FROM THE NW THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE NEAR SUNRISE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS,
BUT A BRIEF SPIN-UP CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT. AS SUCH, SPC
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST COULD SEE A
FEW ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVAIL TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
CADY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAN AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
INTO THE AREA AND SERVES AS A LLVL FOCUSING MECHINISM. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE COAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING THEN STALL AS THE PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST VERSUS SOUTH. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL SEE A BREIF PERIOD OF COOLER & DRIER WX FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY SAT, BUT DEEPER MOISTURE POOLING TO ITS
SOUTH WILL BEGIN LIFTING AGAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. COMBINED WITH
A SOMEWHAT MESSY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED PRECIP TO RE-DEVELOP INLAND
LATER IN THE DAY.
THE NEXT WEST COACT TROF WILL TRACK ACROSS CA AND TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA SUN-TUE. WE'LL SEE SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING TAKE SHAPE
LOCALLY IN ADVANCE WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO TO WARMER
CONDITIONS AND LOWER CHANCES OF RAINFALL. 47
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT...BUT ANTICIPATE MVFR STARUS
TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EALY-MID MORNING WED. HOUSTON TERMINALS HAVEN'T BEEN SEEING LONGER
TERM BKN CEILINGS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, SO MAINTAINED SCT LOW LEVEL
VALUES THERE MOST OF THE TIME. ISO-SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE FROM MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH OF SIGNIFICANCE WITH
THAT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD MID MORNING AS WE GET SOME
MIXING AND SOME 20-25KT GUSTS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE. WE'LL NEED TO
WATCH TSTM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY INTO WED NIGHT.
THERE'S A CURRENTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO WHETHER
SOME OF THAT IS ABLE TO SAG INTO PARTS OF SE TX. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG AND WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2025
A SOMEWHAT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS, 4-7FT SEAS AND ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT
PERIODS OF CAUTION FLAG AND/OR ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH
SPEEDS LINGERING AROUND 20KT +/-5KT INTO WED NIGHT-THURS. THERE
WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES. WATER
LEVELS WILL ALSO BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL, BUT GENERALLY PEAK BELOW
LEVELS TYPICALLY SEEN WITH COASTAL FLOOD CONCERNS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS TOWARD THE COAST. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 71 87 71 89 / 0 40 40 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 85 73 89 / 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 82 76 82 / 10 10 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ330-335.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ350-355-370-
375.
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