289
FXUS64 KHGX 302318
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
618 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY THE APPROACH OF A ROBUST
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA SHORTLY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACE/MIXED-LAYER
INSTABILITY, LIMITED INHIBITION, ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK OF
STORMS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. AS THE LINE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LATE
EVENING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THERE WILL BE A DECREASING BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM.
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RESURGENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING, BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE COMPARED TO
TODAY. STILL, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO TAPE INTO
STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY (2500 J/KG +) AND COULD PRESUMABLY
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED IMPACTS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT TO TO CONTINUE
TO SIT IN THE LOW 70S (MID 70S AT THE COAST). TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CADY
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A FEW FEATURES
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WE COULD SEE A RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH PWS RANGING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A FEW VORT MAXES WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP INTENSIFY SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, RAINFALL, AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN, THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF A BIT – RANGING IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONDITIONS WARM UP A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
WILL NOT BE AS RAINY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COTTO
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
MAIN IMPACT FOR THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. TIMING IS STILL SOMEWHAT
QUESTIONABLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A DECENT TIMEFRAME
FOR THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH HAS BEEN COVERED BY PROB30'S. THE
PROB30'S IN THIS CASE AREN'T FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THEM. SO,
THINK OF THEM AS THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR CONVECTION. SOME
GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE LINE WITH LINGERING SH FOR A
FEW HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE THE LINE MOVING INTO CLL AROUND 02-03Z,
AT IAH/HOU AROUND 07-08Z, AND AT GLS AROUND 09-10Z. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT COVERING THOSE WITH VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL
THERE'S MORE CONSENSUS.
OUTSIDE OF THAT, ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVING IN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND LINGERING INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT
AND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A FEW FEATURES
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER THROUGHOUT THE DAY/NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME WEAK MID-UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES. WE COULD SEE A RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH PWS RANGING BETWEEN 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A FEW VORT MAXES WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP INTENSIFY SOME
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.
THANKS TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE, RAINFALL, AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN, THE HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF A BIT – RANGING IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. CONDITIONS WARM UP A BIT ON SUNDAY AND
WILL NOT BE AS RAINY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 70 90 68 87 / 70 20 10 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 89 70 87 / 50 30 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 83 75 82 / 20 20 0 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ330-335-
350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....COTTO (24)
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...COTTO (24)
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