652
FXUS64 KHGX 010629
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
129 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT WED APR 30 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SUPPORTED BY THE APPROACH OF A ROBUST
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA SHORTLY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS OVER THE COURSE
OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACE/MIXED-LAYER
INSTABILITY, LIMITED INHIBITION, ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AND
EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK OF
STORMS WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, WHERE
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. AS THE LINE PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH IN THE LATE
EVENING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, THERE WILL BE A DECREASING BUT NONZERO CHANCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE STORM THREAT, THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS SYSTEM.
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A RESURGENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING, BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE COMPARED TO
TODAY. STILL, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ABLE TO TAPE INTO
STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY (2500 J/KG +) AND COULD PRESUMABLY
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED IMPACTS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT TO TO CONTINUE
TO SIT IN THE LOW 70S (MID 70S AT THE COAST). TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL
ONCE AGAIN APPROACH THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CADY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWING FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, SPAWNING A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE TEXAS.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES (BY 2-4 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH CLL AND UTS CURRENTLY, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CXO
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, BUT TS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IAH, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN AT HOU/SGR BETWEEN 8-11Z WITH SOME SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT WHICH WILL
SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 15-17Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS LOWER TO BELOW 7KT OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AT AROUND 2500FT.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS
AROUND 4-6FT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT
TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 68 87 64 / 10 10 70 70
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 70 87 68 / 30 10 50 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 75 82 71 / 20 0 20 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...FOWLER
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