520
FXUS64 KHGX 010902
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
402 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA EARLY TODAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
ENDED FOR THE MOMENT WITH REMNANTS OF THIS LINE'S SOUTHWESTERLY TAIL
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A
LULL IN RAINFALL WITH ONLY SPARSE PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON COULD BRING A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOOD AREA. THE
ENVIRONMENT STILL FEATURES SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY,
SUCH THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
THOUGH, FORCING ALOFT IS STILL WEAK, SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO GROW
AND ORGANIZE WITH WEAK WAA SHOWERS DOMINATING THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME. SPC & WPC HAVE PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY WIND & HAIL) AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GREATEST FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS
AREA.
A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. MODEST INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SUCH THAT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO REMAINS IN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY, THOUGH CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS CONVECTION
DECREASING LEADING UP TO SUNRISE AS THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER
STABILIZES. BEARING THIS IN MIND, WE'LL LIKE SEE ANOTHER BRIEF LULL
IN RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY.
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND ONWARDS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. STEADY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO STREAM THROUGH
ALOFT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHED INTO SE TEXAS AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST BY SATURDAY. THE SLEW OF CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS
CONVECTION INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HREF 2-5KM
UPDRAFT HELICITY PAINT BALLS (EXCEEDING >25 M2/S2) ARE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE ARLATEX AREA, ESPECIALLY AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, SIGNALING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS IN THESE AREAS. THE TAIL
END OF THE 06Z HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
NIGHT, MOVING OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. SPC & WPC HAVE A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN ON THE TABLE DURING THIS PERIOD, SO STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES.
03
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWING FRIDAY NIGHT'S COLD FRONT BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, SPAWNING A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE LOW IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS SE TEXAS.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPERATURES (BY 2-4 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH CLL AND UTS CURRENTLY, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CXO
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, BUT TS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IAH, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN AT HOU/SGR BETWEEN 8-11Z WITH SOME SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT WHICH WILL
SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 15-17Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS LOWER TO BELOW 7KT OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AT AROUND 2500FT.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH CLL AND UTS CURRENTLY, AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CXO
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH, BUT TS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IAH, AND POSSIBLY
EVEN AT HOU/SGR BETWEEN 8-11Z WITH SOME SHOWERS ALL THE WAY TO THE
COAST POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500FT WHICH WILL
SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 15-17Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WILL
DEVELOP BY THE LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS LOWER TO BELOW 7KT OVERNIGHT WITH THE RETURN OF
MVFR CIGS AT AROUND 2500FT.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20-25KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS
AROUND 4-6FT. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AT
TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD
TO A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT THEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
A WEAK FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 69 83 64 / 20 20 90 80
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 72 85 67 / 20 20 80 70
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 76 80 71 / 20 20 40 60
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING
FOR GMZ350-355-370-375.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....FOWLER
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...FOWLER
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