307
FXUS64 KHGX 020454
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1154 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE IMMEDIATE TERM REMAINS POISED TO BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE ONE, WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SE TX OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS EVENING, WE'VE ALREADY STARTED TO SEE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO OUR W AND NW AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE MIDLEVELS PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OCCURS THIS EVENING, IT'S POSSIBLE A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. AFTER SUNSET, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ON A DOWNWARD TREND AHEAD OF A RESURGENCE
ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS INCREASING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
INTO THE REGION. A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH ABUNDANT NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE, SB INSTABILITY IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG, AND EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR OVER 30 KNOTS. PVA
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
AGAIN BRINGING THE THREAT OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, AN ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO POSE THE RISK OF STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE, WITH THE
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO TRAVEL RELATIVELY SLOWLY, WE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE AREAS OF STREET FLOODING. TOMORROW IS A DAY TO REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE, HAVING MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND
REMAINING VIGILANT OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
HIGHS TOMORROW SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES AS MILD NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.
CADY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL LOCATIONS
SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING AND WE COULD STILL SEE SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS INLAND.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS COULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND THE WATERS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO SOUTHEAST TX. THIS WILL
LEAD TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 70S OVER THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PINEY WOODS REGION AND
THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
ON SUNDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW
SHOWERS BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE GULF WATERS AND
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY AS THE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN, HOWEVER, WE COULD
SEE RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RAMPS UP AND SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESSES PASS THROUGH.
COTTO
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SHOWERS ONGOING AT UTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CXO/UTS. ALL SITES
ARE AT VFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. VFR CIGS
WILL TAKE OVER AROUND MID-MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND 18-20Z NORTH OF I-10. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SE TOWARDS THE COAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SSE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOLLOWING
THE FROPA. SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND RELAX BY MID WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS AND/OR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE AVOID GOING INTO THE WATERS
IF RED FLAGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE BEACHES.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 85 63 78 / 20 80 70 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 72 86 67 82 / 20 70 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 76 82 71 81 / 20 40 60 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM CDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CADY
LONG TERM....COTTO
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...COTTO
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