346
FXUS64 KHGX 020908
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SE TEXAS WILL SEE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY FROM A GROWING RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOW THROUGHOUT THE
LATE MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CALM, SAVE FOR A FEW SPARSE
SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STORM. THIS WILL BE DRIVEN BY
A PASSING SHORTWAVE, WHICH CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
SOUTH TEXAS. AS ALREADY MENTIONED, ANY ACTIVITY FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED DUE HIGH STABILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING. STILL, ONE STRONG STORM HAS SEEMINGLY PULLED ITSELF
TOGETHER NEAR SOUTH TEXAS, AND MAY PUSH INTO OUR AREA EARLY TODAY
BEFORE DISSIPATING (POSSIBLY GIVING OUR NWR LISTENERS AN EARLY
MORNING WAKE-UP CALL).
THE GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINS TO EMERGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (LETS SAY AROUND 10 AM OR SO) AS
INHIBITION/CAPPING ERODES FROM DAYTIME HEATING. SIMULTANEOUSLY,
WE'LL SEE A SWATH OF PVA PUSH INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY/PINEY WOODS
AREA, PRECEDING AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. WE'LL
SLOWLY SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TREND UPWARDS FROM HERE ON AS
PVA STRENGTHENS WHILE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PICK UP. HREF PUTS
MEAN SFC CAPE BROADLY ABOVE 2500 J/KG, EXCEEDING 3000 K/KG IN MOST
AREAS NORTH OF I-10/US-59 (POSSIBLY TO 4000 J/KG AT TIMES). 6KM
SHEAR STARTS OFF AROUND 30 KNOTS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT IS
PROGGED TO RISE TO 60 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. THIS EARLY AFTERNOON
PERIOD ALSO FEATURES STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEC/KM, THOUGH
NOTABLY 3KM SRH REMAINS RATHER LOW, BROADLY UNDER 100 M2/S2. A FEW
DISCRETE/ORGANIZED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH
AGAIN IT'LL BE LARGELY CONFINED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA INITIALLY.
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD START TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON (LIKELY SOME AROUND OR AFTER 1 PM). AS IT DOES,
WE'LL SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GREATLY INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD WITH THE COLD FRONT AS A BROKEN LINE/CLUSTERS OF
STORMS. UPDRAFT HELICITY REACHES IT'S APEX DURING THIS PERIOD,
INDICATING THIS TO BE THE MAIN TIMEFRAME OF FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, THE SLOW SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THESE STORMS
WITH AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
DECREASING LATE TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES, WITH THE MAIN LINE
OF STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY THIS POINT, THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE OVER, WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SPC HAS MOST OF SE TEXAS UNDER AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3/5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA
UNDER A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. ALL SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE ON THE TABLE FOR TODAY, THOUGH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY
FOCUS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THIS LINE OF STORMS PUSHES SOUTH.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF
RECEIVING WARNINGS.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MUCH MORE BENIGN WEATHER BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
AFTERNOON, PAVING THE WAY FOR CALM WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
03
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN ON SUNDAY LEADING TO DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PWAT VALUES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.5", AND WITH DECENT
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST, COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY IN THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S AREA
WIDE. NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND
IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. BENIGN WEATHER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER ACTIVE
PATTERN TAKES OVER MID-WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
ADAMS
AVIATION
(06Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SHOWERS ONGOING AT UTS AND IN THE VICINITY OF CXO/UTS. ALL SITES
ARE AT VFR AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING
TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE.
MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. VFR CIGS
WILL TAKE OVER AROUND MID-MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AROUND 18-20Z NORTH OF I-10. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE SE TOWARDS THE COAST AHEAD OF AND ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXIT THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SSE AGAIN FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOLLOWING
THE FROPA. SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RELAX BY MID WEEK. CAUTION FLAGS AND/OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WATERS CAN BE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF FACING BEACHES WILL
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE AVOID
GOING INTO THE WATERS IF RED FLAGS ARE PRESENT ALONG THE BEACHES.
ADAMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 84 63 77 52 / 80 80 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 67 81 59 / 70 80 30 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 71 81 68 / 30 60 50 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
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