933
FXUS64 KHGX 241837
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
137 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
- HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL FOR LATE JUNE STANDARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MEANING PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO THE REGION. SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE GULF MOISTURE INLAND, RESULTING IN PWS INTO THE
1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES (SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTION) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE INLAND, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THESE ARE TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS; HOWEVER, A FEW
OF THEM COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND/OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10
AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A PASSING WEAK
EMBEDDED INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE EAST.
UPPER-LVL FLOW PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY; OTHER THAN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE. AS RESULT, SUMMER-
LIKE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED, THIS TIME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY, I.E., COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
MORNING, THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN AFTER THURSDAY THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS
PATTERN WILL ONLY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT OVERALL,
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (ISOLATED). THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND WATERS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPTICK IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH/MIDDLE
TX COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSE
TO THE COASTAL ZONES/COUNTIES.
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGC IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS; SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. THIS IS NEAR
SEASONAL FOR LATE JUNE STANDARDS. LOWS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, KEEPING NIGHTS MILD AND MUGGY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST/SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH
AROUND NOON, THEN EXPAND NORTHWARDS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS, SO HAVE GONE WITH TEMPOS OF TS INSTEAD OF PROB30S FOR
THE MAIN HOURS OF CONCERN. WHILE ACTIVITY WITH END OVER LAND
THROUGH THE NIGHT, THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR EVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS POSSIBLY
IMPACTING GLS AND LBX THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE
REGION.
OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AT CXO WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO GIVING WAY TO AREA-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SE
WINDS AROUND 6-10KTS. HIGHER, VARIABLE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS MORE
CLOSER TO THE COAST/BAYS, THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNDAY. OVERALL, LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN INTO THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE; SLIGHTLY
BUILDING DURING THE WEEKEND UP TO 5 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 74 89 73 / 40 20 50 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 75 89 75 / 50 30 60 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 80 88 81 / 30 40 60 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...JM
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