951
FXUS64 KHGX 242241
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
541 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
- HIT-OR-MISS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL FOR LATE JUNE STANDARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
MID TO UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TODAY. SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS POSITIONED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE, MEANING PERSISTENT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW INTO THE REGION. SURFACE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE GULF MOISTURE INLAND, RESULTING IN PWS INTO THE
1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. DEEP MOISTURE, DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE
BOUNDARIES (SEA/BAY BREEZE INTERACTION) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE INLAND, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. THESE ARE TYPICAL SUMMER STORMS; HOWEVER, A FEW
OF THEM COULD BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH, SMALL
HAIL AND/OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL END
AROUND SUNSET, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10
AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A PASSING WEAK
EMBEDDED INVERTED TROUGH ALOFT FROM THE EAST.
UPPER-LVL FLOW PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY; OTHER THAN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE. AS RESULT, SUMMER-
LIKE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED, THIS TIME BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
DAYBREAK THROUGHOUT THE DAY, I.E., COASTAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
MORNING, THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON.
A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN AFTER THURSDAY THANKS TO THE UPPER RIDGE
THAT WILL MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THIS
PATTERN WILL ONLY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT OVERALL,
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW (ISOLATED). THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND WATERS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, AN UPTICK IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH/MIDDLE
TX COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSE
TO THE COASTAL ZONES/COUNTIES.
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN INTO THE 15 TO 20 DEGC IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS; SUGGESTING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. THIS IS NEAR
SEASONAL FOR LATE JUNE STANDARDS. LOWS, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, KEEPING NIGHTS MILD AND MUGGY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY. EXPECT TS AND SHRA TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BEFORE WINDING DOWN AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. LBX/GLS
MAY EXPERIENCE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. ALL SITES AT VFR AT THIS TIME
WITH MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ADAMS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS MORE
CLOSER TO THE COAST/BAYS, THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER SUNDAY. OVERALL, LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN INTO THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE; SLIGHTLY
BUILDING DURING THE WEEKEND UP TO 5 FT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 89 73 91 / 20 50 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 89 75 92 / 30 60 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 80 88 81 89 / 40 60 20 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...ADAMS/COTTO
MARINE...JM
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