880
FXUS64 KHGX 252352
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
652 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DECREASE AFTER THURSDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERS IN. HOWEVER, A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES EACH
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA/BAY BREEZE AND DIURNAL HEATING.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING HAZY SKIES ACROSS SE TX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A MESSY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DRIVEN BY A WEAK MID-UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, COMBINED WITH HIGH PWS AND DIURNAL
HEATING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
WEAKENS/MOVES FURTHER TO THE WEST. WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT
TO THE WEST, BRINGING A REINFORCING SURGE OF DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. AS RESULT, DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE WITH A DAILY CHANCE
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
SEA/BAY BREEZE. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN/STORMS WILL ROUGHLY BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 INTO THE WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF TWO
FACTORS: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DUE TO A PASSING TROUGH AND HAZY
SKIES DUE TO SAHARAN DUST. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF POPS AS SOME OF THEM KEEP THE
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF BRINGS THE SYSTEM
FURTHER NORTH, IMPACTING OUR HALF SOUTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 TO 65% OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ALONG THE COAST
AND GULF WATERS. ANOTHER FACTOR TO WATCH AND CONSIDER WILL BE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE SAHARAN DUST, MAINLY AFTER SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN COULD
POTENTIALLY BRING EVEN DRIER AIR (INHIBITING RAIN CHANCES) AND KEEP
CONDITIONS A BIT "COOLER", MAINLY IN THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
GLS AT MVFR WITH CIGS AND LT RAIN. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
DOWN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SSE AND LIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST. A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES ARE THE ONES RESPONSIBLE OF
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES MOVES FURTHER
INLAND. THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX
COAST/MATAGORDA BAY REGION. OVERALL, A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
MOVING FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND 3 - 4 FT SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 91 72 93 / 10 30 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 90 75 91 / 10 40 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 20 30 10 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...JM
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