238
FXUS64 KHGX 261106
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
606 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF DECREASE IN POPS ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY THEN SURGES
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
- PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN ON SUNDAY AND PREVAILS INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID/UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
ANOTHER DAY WITH THE HAVES AND HAVE NOTS OF RECEIVING RAIN IS IN
STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO STREAM IN DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE COAST AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS WE ADD IN DAYTIME HEATING AND
SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS INTO THE MIX. ON THE PLUS
SIDE, THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. PW VALUES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 2.0" AS
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, SO SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD BRING QUICK 1+" TOTALS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL
WILL BE AROUND OR SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR, BUT RAIN CHANCES EXIST
EVERYWHERE. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON FRIDAY, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LEADING A 500MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO
~590 DAM. PAIR THAT WITH A PUSH OF DRIER AIR AS WELL AND WE END UP
WITH DECREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN. THEY DON'T DROP TO ZERO, BUT
DEFINITELY A NOTICEABLE DROP. DUE TO THE DECREASED RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE LOW 90S AREAWIDE.
SATURDAY WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME WITH JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO
WARMER, AND THEN WE GET TO SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A PLUME OF SAHARAN
DUST MOVING IN EARLY IN THE MORNING, AND A PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING
IN TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVERHEAD AS WELL...SO WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN?! WELL AT THE VERY
LEAST WE'LL SEE HAZY SKIES, BUT FOR THOSE OF YOU SOUTH OF I-10
YOU'LL WANT TO HAVE YOUR UMBRELLAS NEARBY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE SAHARAN DUST STICKS AROUND AS A RIDGING
PATTERN SETTLES IN LEADING TO A DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. RAIN CHANCES DON'T LOOK TO GO AWAY
COMPLETELY AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...SO THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
TYPE OF PATTERN. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIR FROM THE SAHARAN DUST WILL PLAY A
ROLE IN MIXING OUT OUR DEWPOINTS TO THE 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH AS OF RIGHT NOW SHOULD KEEP US FROM ANY HEAT ADVISORY
MENTIONS...BUT IT'LL DEFINITELY STILL FEEL LIKE ITS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TSTMS TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE METRO
AREA, MAINLY CLL AND POSSIBLY UTS, MIGHT SEE SOME LATE NIGHT MVFR
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT HEADING INTO FRI MORNING. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS BRINGING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. EXPECTING THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO PUSH
IN ON THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A PLUME OF
SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILS
INTO NEXT WEEK LEADING TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET
INTO NEXT WEEK.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 91 72 92 73 / 30 30 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 75 91 76 / 50 10 30 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 81 89 82 / 30 20 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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