847
FXUS64 KHGX 262343
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST,
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. LOWEST POPS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
GREATEST ON SUNDAY.
- PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES IN SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY, BRINGING
HAZY-WHITE SKIES THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TREND UPWARDS, REACHING THE MID/UPPER 90S
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES BY NEXT WEEK.
03
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
CONDITIONS TODAY SHOULD BE OVERALL LESS ACTIVE THAN DAYS PRIOR.
BROAD RIDGING REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK EMBEDDED LOWS/DISTURBANCES ALOFT. DEEP
PWS OF 2.0 INCHES OR MORE REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE REGION, THOUGH
FORCING REMAINS LACKLUSTER. STILL, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STRAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING, MAINLY WEST OF HOUSTON. CAMS ARE
NOT CAPTURING THIS ACTIVITY VERY WELL, AND WHILE THE HOURLY HRRR
RUNS ARE STARTING TO CATCH UP, IT STILL SEEMS FIXATED ON SHIFTING
THIS ACTIVITY NEAR THE METRO/COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO
THAT OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. WHILE SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THESE AREAS, THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES & COVERAGE WILL LIKELY STAY WEST OF I-45 TODAY, WHERE THE
MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS COINCIDES WITH SFC THETA E ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SIMILAR STORY AS BROAD RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN CONUS, THOUGH WITH NOTABLY
LOWER POPS. LARGER PATTERN CHANGES BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHTS WITHIN THE RIDGE CREEP UPWARDS SLIGHTLY, REMAINING NEAR
588-592DAM, ALONG WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST
COAST TO THE ARKLATEX AREA. DEEP PWS AND SOME WEAKER EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH
ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. A PLUME OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL MOVE INTO SE TEXAS SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING HAZY-
WHITE SKIES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS THIS AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. COINCIDING WITH THE RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS, 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY RISE FROM 16-19C ON FRIDAY TO
18-22C EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SAHARAN DUST COULD MODIFY TEMPS
DOWNWARD, THOUGH ONLY BY A SLIGHT AMOUNT AND PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHEN THE DUST AEROSOL OPTICAL THICKNESS IS GREATEST.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER
80S/UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SHOWERS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS
EVENING. ALL TERMINALS ARE AT VFR. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN TO TERMINALS
NORTH OF IAH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING VFR ONCE
AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
WITH S/SSE WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY; HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY,
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH TERMINALS COULD BE IMPACTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS (MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS)
AND SEAS OF 2 TO 5 FEET WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY, WITH CHANCES
LOWEST ON FRIDAY. A PLUME OF OF SAHARAN DUST MOVES OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY. AS THIS DRIER SAHARAN AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE, LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. RIP CURRENT RISK ACROSS THE GULF BEACHES
WILL GENERALLY BE MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 72 92 73 93 / 20 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 91 76 92 / 20 30 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...03
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