026
FXUS64 KHGX 271124
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
-DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ON SUNDAY.
-PLUME OF MID-LEVEL SAHARAN DUST TO BRING HAZY SKIES BY SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
-CONDITIONS TREND HOTTER NEXT WEEK, REACHING THE MID/UPPER 90S
INLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A COMPLEX
MID/UPPER PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WE HAVE A RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC WHILE A MID/UPPER LOW SITS OVER
FLORIDA. A MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM NW MEXICO TO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THIS
PATTERN HAS BROUGHT DEEP TROPICAL FLOW FROM THE GULF, ALONG WITH A
SMATTERING OF VORT MAXES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, HELPING TO ENHANCE
THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE SUSPECT
THAT THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
RIDGING BEGINS ITS GRADUAL BUILD OVER OUR REGION BY SUNDAY. NOT
EVERY NEIGHBORHOOD WILL EXPERIENCE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. BUT THOSE THAT DO COULD EXPERIENCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. TIS THE SEASON!
INITIALLY, THE UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES. THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD STEER A W
CARRIBEAN TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTO THE SW GULF / BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE STEEPENING
LL GRADIENT WILL ENHANCE THE ALREADY PRESENT DEEP TROPICAL FLOW
FROM THE GULF. THE RESULTING PWAT SURGE WILL TEND TO INCREASE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
(ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND COASTAL COUNTIES). HOWEVER, THE
PROSPECT OF MID-LEVEL WARM DUSTY AIR DOES ADD AN EXTRA OUNCE OF
UNCERTAINTY. BECAUSE IF THE WARMER, DRY LAYER IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
ACTS AS A CAP, THEN MY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY POPS ARE
PROBABLY TOO HIGH. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE AND MAYBE SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL DRY/DUSTY AIR.
ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE THE RISING
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BUT BEYOND
THEN, INLAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S, POTENTIALLY
UPPER 90S.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE SOME VERY LOCALIZED
4-6SM VSBYS THAT'LL BURN OFF IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THOUGH NOT
QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY, WE'D ANTICIPATED SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING/SEABREEZE.
HAVE ESTIMATED TIMING COVERED WITH PROB30S IN THE LATEST 12Z TAFS.
PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY EARLY EVENING. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL SEE RAIN EVERY
DAY. A DISTURBANCE PASSING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 73 92 75 / 10 0 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 76 92 77 / 30 0 30 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 82 89 81 / 20 0 20 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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