893
FXUS64 KHGX 272350
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ON SUNDAY.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ARRIVES AFTER SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING HAZY SKIES ACROSS SE TX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA/BAY BREEZE.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP "HEALTHY"
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWS INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE. THE
COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING WILL SUPPORT THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY LOW-LYING FOG BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB RIDGE, THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED TO OUR EAST, WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. AS RESULT, LOWER RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY. HAVE UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF POP, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
REGION, EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO/SOUTHWESTERN GULF DURING THE WEEKEND. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THE MOMENT, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10,
AND COASTAL WATERS WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN/STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN INCREASING MOISTURE LEVEL IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH; HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS AS A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO ON ITS WAY
TO THE REGION. THE TIME OF ARRIVAL AND THE THICKNESS OF THIS LAYER
OF DUST COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT RAIN/STORM CHANCES. AS OF NOW,
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS A WETTER PATTERN, WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEABREEZE INTERACTION, A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST. HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE
SAHARAN DUST ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
AT CLL AROUND 10Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE S TO SSE. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HAZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND
LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY. WINDS
COULD BECOME MODERATE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WITH GUSTS FROM 15 TO 20
KNOTS. TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DAILY SHOWERS
WITH A FEW STORMS MAINLY IN THE MORNINGS. AS WE HEAD INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, SEAS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING/MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN MX COAST/SOUTHWESTERN GULF. WHILE THIS WAVE IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, DEEP GULF MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN INTO THE 4
TO 6 FT RANGE DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. BEYOND TUESDAY, LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL GULF-FACING
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RISK WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH LEVEL
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 93 74 92 / 0 10 0 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 77 90 / 0 30 0 80
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 89 82 89 / 0 20 10 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page