025
FXUS64 KHGX 281049
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
549 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY.
- PLUME OF MID-LEVEL SAHARAN DUST TO BRING HAZY SKIES NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT HOTTER NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SATURDAY'S WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEHAVE MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW
DAYS. SO IF VERY HUMID CONDITIONS WITH A SIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WHAT YOU CRAVE, THEN ENJOY YOUR
SATURDAY! ONCE AGAIN, NOT EVERY LOCATION WILL RECEIVE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARDS
AN ATMOSPHERIC BATTLE OF SORTS. BEHOLD...THE BATTLE OF THE PLUMES!
YOU'LL NOTICE IN THE KEY POINTS SECTION ABOVE THAT THE WORD 'PLUME'
WAS USED NOT ONCE, BUT TWICE. INDEED, WE HAVE TWO ATMOSPHERIC PLUMES
ON ROUTE TO SE TEXAS. THE FIRST BEING A PLUME OF DENSE TROPICAL
MOISTURE, BROUGHT FORTH TO OUR REGION THANKS TO A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. PLUME NUMBER TWO REFERS
TO THE APPROACHING DRY AND DUSTY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS CURRENTLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WE CAN THANK THE SAHARAN DESERT FOR THIS PLUME.
THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL TEND TO INCREASE THE CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE, THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAHARAN DUST WOULD WARM UP AND DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS, ACTING TO
SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES. SO WHICH ONE WILL WIN THE GREAT BATTLE? FOR
NOW, THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL WIN (AT LEAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA) ON SUNDAY. THE EVIDENCE IN THIS CASE BEING
THE COMPUTER MODELS AND WHAT WE CAN SEE ON TPW IMAGERY WITH OUR
OWN EYES. LET'S START WITH THE CURRENT PWAT SITUATION. MIMIC-TPW
IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OUTRUNNING THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST TPW IS ALREADY ENTERING THE
SOUTHERN GULF, WHILE THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LAGS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THIS
LAG WILL NOT CONTINUE. THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
WELL. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST FEATURES INCREASING
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY (SOME COULD BE HEAVY)
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHERE THINGS GET A LITTLE
TRICKY IS MONDAY. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN RICH IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE. BUT THE INCREASING PRESENCE OF SAHARAN AIR ALOFT MAY ACT
AS A SUPPRESSIVE FORCE AGAINST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE,
WE ARE EXPECTING LESS (THOUGH NOT ZERO) SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON MONDAY (PLUME BATTLE DEPENDING).
BEYOND MONDAY, MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WHILE SAHARAN
DUST LINGERS IN THE MID-LEVELS. IF YOU GUESSED THAT THESE TRENDS
SUPPORT LOWER POPS AND HIGHER TEMPS, YOU WOULD NOT BE WRONG. BUT THE
MID TO LATE WEEK ATMOSPHERE ISN'T LOOKING SUPPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO
BRING POPS DOWN TO ZERO. IN ADDITION, THE MID-LEVEL DUST CAN BLOCK
ENOUGH SOLAR RADIATION TO LIMIT WARMING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY RANGE FROM UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S NEAR THE COAST,
TO MID 90S INLAND (UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS). SO THE FORECAST IS
HOT, BUT NOT AS HOT AS IT CAN BE.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
PATCHY FOG, MAINLY ACROSS MORE RURAL/NON-METRO AREAS SHOULD BURN
OFF A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSTMS
AROUND, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN PAST DAYS AND
AM NOT CURRENTLY PLANNING TO ADD THE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAFS
ATTM. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE MARINE WEATHER OUTLOOK THROUGH NEXT WEEK FEATURES A CONTINUATION
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, 2-4 FOOT SEAS, AND A DAILY RISK
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHEN A TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PASSES
THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES. SEAS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH
5 FEET, WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, THE SYSTEM
HAS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO MEXICO ON MONDAY.
SELF
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 74 91 75 / 10 0 30 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 77 89 77 / 30 0 80 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 81 89 82 / 10 20 70 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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