634
FXUS64 KHGX 282354
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
654 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- A PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST ARRIVES AFTER SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
HAZY SKIES ACROSS SE TX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LATEST RADAR SHOWS A LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE, CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD, THAT IS BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS EARLY SUNDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT INCREASES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
IN THE BAY CAMPECHE/SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO BECOME A BIT
MORE ORGANIZED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEAST TX DURING THE PERIOD. AS RESULT, PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, BECOMING LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH GIVEN INCONSISTENCIES
BETWEEN HI-RES SOLUTIONS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS. ONE OF THE MAIN
REASONS IS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A PLUME OF NOT MOISTURE, BUT DRIER
AIR. A LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK. WHILE THE THICKNESS OF THIS LAYER IS
NOT DEEP, SOME IMPACTS IN PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES COULD OCCUR
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH DAILY RAIN/STORM CHANCES
BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER CONDITIONS (THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO PREVAIL,
AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING, AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHRA/TS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING, SPREADING INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. OTHERWISE, WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE S/SE AND
LIGHT. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INCOMING SAHARAN
DUST; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW CONCENTRATED THE DUST WILL
BE ONCE IT ARRIVES, AND HOW IT WILL IMPACT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL TO OUR EAST. SEAS WILL ALSO
REMAIN LOW, IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE. A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE BEST RAIN/STORM
CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO LATE SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF/BAY CAMPECHE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUILDING SEAS UP TO 6 FT
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH A DAILY RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG ALL GULF-FACING
BEACHES CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RISK WILL INCREASE TO A HIGH
LEVEL ON MONDAY AND WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 92 75 93 / 0 30 0 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 89 76 92 / 10 80 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 20 70 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...JM
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