296
FXUS64 KHGX 291739
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST,
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME. GREATEST CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- RISING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 90S EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
SLIGHT REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE HEATING
UP AGAIN.
- VEIL OF LOFTED SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, DECREASING IN CONCENTRATION LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS NOW BECOME TROPICAL STORM BARRY. THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO MEXICO LATER THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL STILL DISSIPATE ON MONDAY DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SE TEXAS REMAINS LARGELY BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM,
THOUGH A PLUME OF DEEPER PWS NEAR 1.8-2.0" HAS PUSHED INTO SE
TEXAS, BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. FORCING IS BROADLY WEAK DUE TO RIDGING ALOFT,
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETAE ADVECTION IS WORKING TO
ENABLE THIS SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTERWARDS, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF INTO THE
EVENING.
NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A RATHER BENIGN, TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH WARM CONDITIONS AND DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
THE ONLY A-TYPICAL ASPECT OF THIS FORECAST IS A PLUME OF SAHARAN
DUST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOFTED OVER THE REGION AND PORTIONS OF
THE GULF OF AMERICA. WHILE THIS DUST PLUME WILL BE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT MOST OF NEXT WEEK, IT'S CONCENTRATION LOOKS TO BE TOO
LOW TO DRIVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST, ASIDE FROM
HAZY, WHITE-TINTED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
DECREASING SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE, THEN RISING AGAIN INTO SATURDAY.
03
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
COMBINATION OF SOME LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST
AND INCREASED SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE IS LEADING TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
TRANSITION INLAND LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMPLIMENTS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE HIGHEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION (CXO SOUTHWARD), BUT TERMINALS
FURTHER NORTH ARE FAIR GAME LATE IN THE DAY. DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A
SITUATION WHERE WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, BUT PERSISTENT
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT'S HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING AT ANY
INDIVIDUAL LOCATION. AFTER SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS IN THE MID
MORNING HOURS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY PERSIST (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IN/NEAR AN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS). WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING, RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE EARLY-MID EVENING HOURS.
47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BARRY. A PLUME
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BROUGHT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BRING WAVE HEIGHTS 5 TO 7 FEET OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM OUT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND DAILY RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. RIP CURRENT RISK
ACROSS THE GULF BEACHES WILL RANGE FROM MODERATE TO HIGH AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 92 74 93 74 / 40 0 20 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 90 77 93 76 / 60 20 30 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 82 90 81 / 60 10 20 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...47
MARINE...03
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