078
FXUS64 KHGX 301739
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- TODAY (MONDAY) IS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS
WEEK, THEN 10-20% CHANCES OF RAIN FOR REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MID TO UPPER
90S TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS.
- SAHARAN DUST PREVAILS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...CURRENT PLUME LASTS
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER PLUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- 4TH OF JULY WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY...NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED
FOR THE EVENING FIREWORK SHOWS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
ONE MORE DECENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN WE'RE ONTO THE HEAT! MOISTURE AVAILABILITY HAS BEEN THE
GREATEST WEST OF I-45 THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE ONGOING SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE CAMS
(ESPECIALLY THE HRRR) ARE STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE HOUSTON METRO AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN
1-6PM THIS AFTERNOON. PW VALUES REMAIN UP TO 1.9-2.0", SO SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS IN SPITE OF BOTH
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN (ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR NOW) AND A LAYER OF SAHARAN
DUST REMAINS OVERHEAD. ON THE PLUS SIDE, THESE ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES
FOR TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE LOW 90S FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES DROP TO ~10-15% FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ON UP!
850 MB TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK WILL BE AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND THAT'LL PAIR WITH THE PERSISTENT LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST. BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AND YES THIS DOES INCLUDE THE 4TH OF JULY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE SLIM, BUT NON-ZERO, SO THE MAIN STORY HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY
WILL BE HEAT SAFETY. I'M SURE THERE'S A LOT OF YOU WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS, SO KEEP IN MIND THAT YOU'LL WANT TO TAKE BREAKS FROM BEING
OUT IN THE HEAT. WHEN YOU ARE OUTSIDE, DRESS ACCORDINGLY AND STAY
HYDRATED. IF YOU'RE INCLUDING YOUR PETS IN THE FESTIVITIES, KEEP IN
MIND THAT THE CONCRETE WILL LIKELY BE TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS (AND
THEY MAY GET SPOOKED FROM THE FIREWORKS AS WELL). ADDITIONALLY,
PLEASE LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
START OF THE FIREWORK SHOWS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S, WHICH IS HAZARDOUS IN AN
ENCLOSED VEHICLE WITH NO CIRCULATION.
THE CURRENT PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY,
AND WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PLUME MOVING IN ON FRIDAY AND LASTING
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SPEAKING OF THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
ON WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO COME IN AND BRING BACK NOTABLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN, BUT FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS HEAT BEING THE MAIN STORY. DEW
POINTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, SO WE'RE ANTICIPATING REACHING THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD AT
THE MOMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
A FEW SHORT LIVED MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE WE GET A LITTLE
HEATING BY MID MORNING, BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY/TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SOME ISOLATED-SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS
TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE.
HIRES GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT OF SHOWING SOME CELLS
IN/NEAR THE METRO AREA IN THE 19-22Z TIMEFRAME SO WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB30S FOR THAT PERIOD AT IAH. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND THE ADJACENT
GULF WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS CONTINUE ON A
GRADUAL DECREASING TREND AS SWELLS STEADILY SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHTS AT
BUOY 42019 WAS AT 6 FT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AND IS NOW AROUND 5
FT AS OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TODAY, CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DROPS TO AROUND 10% SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE ISOLATED. CONDITIONS WILL BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
COMING UP ON THE 4TH OF JULY.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 0 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...47
MARINE...BATISTE
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