561
FXUS64 KHGX 191755
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
- WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, LEADING TO A
MORE STABLE AND SCORCHING PATTERN.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND AND MOST
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 106F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON, RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZE.
EXPECT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND, MAINLY
INTO THE HOUSTON METRO AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH
PWS CURRENTLY NEAR 2 INCHES, ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS, COUPLED WITH A
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHING FROM THE GULF, WILL BRING MUCH MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO DRIER
AND HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-90S.
WARM AND MUGGY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
70S. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NON-EXISTENT
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TUESDAY COULD BE AN EXCEPTION WITH SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY, THOUGH EVEN THAT WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LIMITED.
OUR NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. WHILE
IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT SPECIFICS, GIVEN CURRENT MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES THIS FAR OUT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE
IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST THURSDAY INTO NEXT
SATURDAY.
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
PATCHY FOG AT CXO EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-15Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH WINDS
STARTING OUT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SPARSE THAN IT WAS
ON FRIDAY, SO THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN MOST TAFS WITH A PROB30.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE THOSE WILL DEVELOP IS ON THE LOW
SIDE. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS TO
STREAM IN OVER THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (CLL/UTS).
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF,
RESULTING IN LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE MORNINGS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
AROUND THE BAYS IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS, WILL BE TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 94 77 94 75 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 79 94 77 / 40 0 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 84 90 83 / 20 0 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...JM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page