252
FXUS64 KHGX 201120
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
- FAIR WEATHER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DRIFTING
HIGHER UP INTO THE 90S.
- WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 106, AND GENERALLY PLENTY OF
SUN, WE'LL SEE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE HIGH
RISK RANGE, AND WE'LL BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY
THROUGH THE WEEK.
- WHETHER OR NOT AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED, THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE
VULNERABLE TO HEAT, OR WILL NEED TO EXERT THEMSELVES STRENUOUSLY
OUTDOORS SHOULD HAVE A PLAN TO STAY AHEAD OF HEAT ILLNESS THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
FROM A PURELY METEOROLOGICAL STANDPOINT, THIS FORECAST IS
WELL...REALLY, REALLY BORING UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AND, WE'LL GET THERE, BUT EVEN IF THE FORECAST ITSELF IS
NOT SUPER EXCITING, THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPORTANT THINGS WE NEED
TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK FROM AN IMPACT
STANDPOINT FOR ALL THESE...NORMAL...PEOPLE ALL OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS.
AND YES, IF YOU ARE THINKING AHEAD OF MY WRITING AND GOING "HMM,
LATE JULY, BORING FORECAST, BUT IMPACTS FOR PEOPLE, SOUNDS LIKE
HEAT" YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT. AS RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS NEW WEEK, WE'LL WATCH
TEMPERATURES DRIFT THEIR WAY UP HIGHER INTO THE 90S FOR DAILY
HIGHS, ESPECIALLY WELL INLAND. BUT WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING, WE'LL STILL KEEP DEWPOINTS UP PRETTY HIGH AS WELL,
WHICH MEANS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE DRIFTING UPWARDS TOO. WE SHOULD
MANAGE PRETTY DECENT DAYTIME MIXING, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
HUMIDITY FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE A SLAM DUNK, AND WHILE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103-107 RANGE, THAT'S
STILL AWFULLY CLOSE TO OUR TYPICAL THRESHOLD OF 108 FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY.
GRANTED, BECAUSE HEAT IS SUCH A TRICKY, NUANCED THING, 108 IS ALSO
NOT A HARD THRESHOLD, EITHER. SO IT WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO A
DAILY REANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE WHAT THE BEST
DECISION ON THAT FRONT IS. ONE AGGRAVATING FACTOR WILL BE THE
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. BOTH OF THOSE WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR HEAT STRESS, AND THIS IS SEEN IN THE RATHER
WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE OF THE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE VALUES IN
THE HIGH RISK RANGE. BECAUSE OF THIS - REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR
NOT THERE IS AN ADVISORY - FOLKS WHO WILL BE WORKING, EXERCISING,
PLAYING, OR SOMEHOW HAVE TO EXERT THEMSELVES IN EXPOSURE OF THE
WORST CONDITIONS OF THE DAY SHOULD PLAN TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS,
HYDRATE, AND ALL-AROUND STAY AHEAD OF THE THREAT OF HEAT ILLNESS.
ONE MITIGATING FACTOR, THOUGH, IS THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE
HEAT SITUATION. HEATRISK SHOWS US THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
HOTTER SIDE, BUT NOT UNUSUALLY OUTSIDE THE TYPICAL PEAK SUMMER
RANGE. WE GET PRETTY WIDESPREAD VALUES OF MODERATE IMPACT MOST
DAYS, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT; MAYBE SOME SPECKLES OF HIGH. THIS
STINKS IN TWO WAYS - ONE, THIS CAN STILL BE A THREAT TO FOLKS
VULNERABLE TO HEAT AND TWO, WHEN PAIRED WITH THE WBGT NUMBERS IT
HIGHLIGHTS HOW EVEN JUST ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA
CAN QUICKLY BECOME DANGEROUS. BUT...GIVEN THAT WE'VE HAD SOME TIME
TO ACCLIMATE TO OUR SUMMER HERE IN THE USUAL PEAK HEAT TIME AND
WE'RE NOT THAT FAR FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM OF "STUPID HOT",
I'M ACTUALLY NOT CURRENTLY INCLINED TO PUSH HARD FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY. THAT SAID, IT'S CLOSE ENOUGH THAT EVEN A SMALL CHANGE
UPWARDS WOULD REQUIRE ME TO RETHINK THAT PRETTY SERIOUSLY. WHICH,
AGAIN, IS WHY THE NEED FOR ANY SORT OF HEAT HEADLINE WILL BECOME A
DAILY ANALYSIS.
OKAY, BEYOND THE HEAT, LET'S TALK ABOUT MORE INTERESTING THINGS.
AS WE GET INTO THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGING SHOULD
WEAKEN MODESTLY. THAT WEAKENING IS PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH
THE PRECISE AMOUNT IS A BIT LESS SO. HOWEVER, EVEN THE MODELS MOST
AGGRESSIVELY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AREN'T THAT MUCH DIFFERENT
FROM A MULTI-ENSEMBLE MEAN (PER LREF CLUSTERING DATA). AND EVEN
THE ONES LEAST AGGRESSIVE DO SO ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER INVERTED
TROUGH TO MAKE ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF IN OUR DIRECTION
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS IS GOING TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK, PERHAPS
FROM THURSDAY OR SO ONWARD. AT WORST, WELL...LET'S NOT TALK ABOUT
THAT YET. I'D RATHER NOT JINX THINGS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE DOES
SEEM TO BE SOME PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GUIDANCE THAT
THIS COMES TO US AS JUST A SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BOOST OUR
TYPICAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN. NOTHING WORSE THAN A REPEAT
OF OUR RECENT 93L EXPERIENCE, AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN RISING TO THAT
FAIRLY MEAGER LEVEL. ONE LOOK AT THE NHC SITE WILL REVEAL NO
BLOBS OF ANY COLOR IN THE GULF FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AND
REALLY, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT A CLEAR-EYED ANALYSIS OF THE
SITUATION WILL TELL YOU. I JUST ALSO PREFER NOT TO TRUST A TROUGH
OVER THE GULF IN LATE JULY. AND THAT BRINGS US TO WHAT IS, I
THINK, A PRETTY RESPONSIBLE WAY TO APPROACH THE FORECAST FOR LATE
THIS WEEK. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY ONWARD, AND THAT'S ABOUT IT. BUT ALSO, MAKE SURE TO CHECK
BACK THROUGH THE WEEK TO ENSURE THAT NOTHING UNEXPECTED HAS
HAPPENED. BELIEVE ME, IF ANYTHING ON THIS CHANGES OR EVEN HINTS AT
CHANGING, WE'LL LET YOU KNOW. ALSO, IF NOTHING CHANGES, WE'LL
STILL LET YOU KNOW. LETTING YOU KNOW WHAT WE KNOW (AND WHEN
NEEDED, WHAT WE DON'T KNOW) IS KINDA THE WHOLE REASON WHY WE'RE
HERE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND GLS AND LINGERING PATCHY FOG AT CXO
THIS MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH SUNSET. COULD SEE A REPEAT OF PATCHY
FOG AND/OR MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS ON
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
FAIR AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, AND ONLY INCREASE TO ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
AT MOST UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LOW SEAS AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED RAINFALL SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
ONLY THE BROAD STROKES CAN BE DRAWN OUT WITH MUCH CERTAINTY AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 83 90 83 / 20 0 10 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...LUCHS
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