900
FXUS64 KHGX 211100
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2025
- OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE, WE ARE EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY AND HOT PATTERN TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CRANK AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, WITH MOST INLAND AREAS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ON
THURSDAY. HEAT WILL BE HAZARDOUS ALL WEEK EVEN IF WE TECHNICALLY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- A LATE WEEK SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES RAIN CHANCES
BEYOND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MID/UPPER RIDGING (CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF) WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS, SUMMER WEATHER WILL REIGN
SUPREME, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS LOOKING
A LITTLE TOO SUPPRESSIVE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. HOWEVER, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT
MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. COULD NOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPOTS REACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. OUR CURRENT DEW POINT FORECAST FEATURES ENOUGH MIXING
TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT THE
HEAT WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT SAFETY
(DRINKING FLUIDS, TAKING BREAKS IN THE SHADE / AC, NOT LEAVING
CHILDREN OR ANIMALS IN THE CAR, AND SO ON). PERHAPS WORTH
MENTIONING ARE THE HIGH WET BULB GLOBE TEMP (WBGT) VALUES WE ARE
EXPECTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. WBGT (BASED OFF
A COMBO OF HEAT, HUMIDITY, SUN ANGLE, CLOUD COVER, AND WIND) IS A
GOOD WAY TO MEASURE THE HEAT STRESS ON A BODY DOING STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE. SO IF YOU DO PLAN ON DOING ANY STRENUOUS
ACTIVITY OUTSIDE, BE ADVISED THAT THE MOST HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE
FROM AROUND NOON TO ABOUT 4PM.
WHILE WE ROAST UNDER THE JULY SUN HERE IN SE TEXAS, A LOW/MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
FLORIDA, BEFORE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS EITHER THE NORTHERN GULF OR
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SYSTEM MAY BRING A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THUS, RAIN CHANCES BEYOND
THURSDAY REMAIN ELEVATED. IN CASE YOU ARE CURIOUS, NHC HAS NOT
HIGHLIGHTED THE DISTURBANCE FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD HAVE A
SUSPICIOUS LOOKING DISTURBANCE (SIMILAR TO THAT LAST ONE, 93L) BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IF CURRENT GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS TO BE
BELIEVED, THEN MUCH OF THE SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN OVER LAND,
RESULTING IN THE SAME FATE 93L FACED LAST WEEK.
SELF
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT CLL/UTS THROUGH
15Z BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO PEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE, BUT THERE IS NO MENTION OF THIS IN ANY TAF DUE TO THE
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP. WINDS TREND
TOWARDS BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN GOING INTO TONIGHT, AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS (CLL/UTS).
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2025
MOSTLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
ONSHORE WINDS (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND 2-3 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, A
DISTURBANCE FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEAS AND WINDS
TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST
IS LOWER THAN NORMAL BEYOND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 78 95 76 / 20 0 20 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 83 91 82 / 10 0 10 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...SELF
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