401
FXUS64 KHGX 220525
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
- HOT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MOST
INLAND AREAS FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, AND A
GRADUAL UPWARD DRIFT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FOR MOST DAYS, ENOUGH DRY AIR WORKS IN FROM ABOVE TO KEEP US
SHORT OF ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT INDEX VALUES, BUT IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO THE THRESHOLD AND THOSE WHO ARE VULNERABLE TO HEAT
STRESS AND/OR WILL BE EXERTING THEMSELVES STRENUOUSLY OUTDOORS
WILL NEED TO BE PROACTIVE IN STAYING AHEAD OF POTENTIAL HEAT
ILLNESS.
- A LATE WEEK SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES RAIN CHANCES
BEYOND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
EVERYONE GRAB YOUR CANINE COMPANIONS, IT IS THEIR DAYS OF THE
SUMMER, AND THE WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL ABSOLUTELY REFLECT IT.
RIDGING IS IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
AND THAT MEANS WE ARE LOOKING AT HOT TEMPERATURES - ABOVE AVERAGE
DESPITE THESE BEING THE HIGHEST AVERAGE MAX TEMPS OF THE YEAR. I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF WE DO THREATEN SOME RECORD HIGHS HERE AND
THERE (AND SOME RECORD HIGH MINS AS WELL - INDEED, THOSE MAY BE A
LITTLE MORE VULNERABLE).
ON THE FLIP SIDE, THERE IS A BIT OF NICE NEWS IN THIS SETUP.
BECAUSE WE HAVE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVERHEAD, WE'VE GOT
PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORMS. AND, PERHAPS EVEN
BETTER, IT PROMOTES DEEP AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYERS THAT CAN TAP
INTO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT, MIXING OUT DEWPOINTS FAIRLY
EFFECTIVELY. IT'S A BIT OF A TRADEOFF, AS THIS RESULTS IN
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER, BUT ULTIMATELY HELPS
TAMP DOWN HEAT INDEX VALUES BY OUTWEIGHING THAT WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. I MEAN...IT'S STILL HUMID, THIS IS SOUTHEAST TEXAS,
AFTER ALL. BUT IT'S ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES MORE IN THE 103-107 RANGE, AND JUUUUUST BELOW THE 108
THRESHOLD FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
THAT SAID...WE ARE STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD, AND
IT IS STILL HOTTER THAN EVEN THE TYPICAL HOTTEST PART OF SUMMER
AROUND HERE. EVEN WITHOUT AN ADVISORY, CONDITIONS COULD BE
DANGEROUS TO THOSE WHO ARE REQUIRED TO WORK STRENUOUSLY OUT IN
EXPOSED CONDITIONS (SEE THE HIGH RISK WBGT VALUES) AND/OR ARE IN A
GROUP VULNERABLE TO HEAT STRESS (EXEMPLIFIED BY THE MODERATE
IMPACT HEATRISK VALUES). WHILE PERHAPS NOT UNUSUALLY DANGEROUS,
THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF FOLKS WHO WILL NEED TO KEEP HEAT STRESS
FRONT OF MIND THIS WEEK.
THINGS PROBABLY GET A BIT WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER ON THURSDAY
ON THE HEAT FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO SCRAPE ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON OUR AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. ON THURSDAY, IT MAY BE NEAR ENOUGH THAT THE
COLUMN BEGINS TO MOISTEN AND ERASE WHAT MODEST HELP WE GET FROM
AFTERNOON MIXING, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BUILD ENOUGH CLOUDS AND/OR
RAIN. THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE THE WORST HEAT CONDITIONS COME
JUST BEFORE THINGS TIP OVER INTO A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE LATE
WEEK, WHEN THIS DISTURBANCE BRINGS MORE CLOUDS AND INCREASED
RAIN/STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AND...YES, NEVER EVER TRUST A TROUGH AROUND THE GULF IN HURRICANE
SEASON. WE ARE DEFINITELY ON THAT - AND FORTUNATELY, MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY STRONG INTO SEEING SOMETHING LIKE
A REPEAT OF WHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK: AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN POTENTIAL, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. IT'S PROBABLY STILL WORTH IT
TO CHECK IN ON US AND THE NHC OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEK TO
ENSURE NOTHING CHANGES ON THAT FRONT. WE MAY EVEN SEE AN AREA
HIGHLIGHTED WITH LOW CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT AT SOME POINT DURING
THE WEEK (WOULD BE VERY HAPPY TO NOT SEE THAT, THOUGH!) AT THIS
POINT, FROM THE DATA AVAILABLE TO ME I HAVE LITTLE CONCERN ABOUT
ANY SORT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE, BUT I'M NOT YET CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
GUARANTEE A COMPLETE LACK OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT EITHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, AREAS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY (CLL). SE WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE THIS EVENING. A PREVAILING S TO SSW WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN LATER TUESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BACKING SE AND INCREASING BY
THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
A RELATIVELY DRY AND HOT PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDWEEK,
WITH NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED EARLY MORNING SHOWER. EXPECT LOW
SEAS AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO PREVAIL.
LATER IN THE WEEK HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE.
AT THE COAST, THE PERSISTENT YET NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH WATER LEVELS ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL NORMS, BUT
SHOULD STAY SAFELY BELOW 3 FEET ABOVE MLLW. SIMILARLY, THERE WILL
BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS, BUT A HIGHER THREAT DOES NOT
LOOK APPARENT, SHORT OF A DRAMATIC CHANGE OF EXPECTATIONS IN THE
LATE WEEK CHANGE IN WEATHER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 82 91 81 / 10 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LUCHS
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...LUCHS
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