333
FXUS64 KHGX 230504
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES AVERAGING IN THE 104 TO 107 RANGE.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
- NHC IS MONITORING THE SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.
BUT THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY VERY DISORGANIZED. MORE IN THE
DISCUSSION BELOW!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
A LARGE MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TODAY INTO TOMORROW, KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. TEMPERATURES IN A FEW HOT
SPOTS MAY REACH 100 OR 101 DEGREES. SO IT WILL BE SIZZLING OUT
THERE! WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT DEW POINTS WILL MIX DOWN SOMEWHAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON, TECHNICALLY KEEPING HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT BEING SAID, THE HEAT WILL BE
HAZARDOUS ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEAT SAFETY. SO Y'ALL KNOW THE DRILL,
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AC IF
WORKING OUTSIDE, DON'T LEAVE KIDS AND ANIMALS IN THE CAR, WEAR
LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND WHATNOT.
IF YOU HAPPEN TO GANDER AT CONUS-WIDE SATELLITE IMAGERY, YOU'LL
CLEARLY SEE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DOMINATING THE WEATHER FROM
TEXAS TO MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BUT WHAT YOU'LL
ALSO SEE IS A DISORGANIZED, SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC SYSTEM PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA, SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA. THIS MID/LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FIND
ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUALLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T TOO EXCITED
ABOUT THIS SYSTEM, KEEPING IT PRETTY DISORGANIZED DURING ITS GULF
JOURNEY. THAT BEING SAID, THE GULF IS HOT AND THE MONTH IS JULY.
SO THE DISTURBANCE STILL WARRANTS OUR ATTENTION. AS OF WRITING
THIS DISCUSSION, NHC IS GIVING THE SYSTEM A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SURGE
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OUR WAY BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY. THUS, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH BY WEEK'S END. ANY SURGE OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE BRINGS THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, WPC HAS
PLACED MUCH OF OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2025
LARGELY VFR AND WINDS MORE-OR-LESS SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS FOR THIS
CYCLE. LENGTH OF TAFS LARGELY DUE TO HANDLING DIURNAL CYCLE OF
WINDS, A LITTLE MORE WEST OF SOUTH EARLY, BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SCRAPS OF FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT, BUT VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN IMPACT TO MERIT A
CHANGE IN FLIGHT CATEGORY AT ANY SITE. AT MOST, I HAVE A SCT012 AT
CLL AROUND DAWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS
AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE OUTER EDGES OF A WEAK,
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COMPLICATES THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST SOMEWHAT. GENERAL WINDS
AND SEAS ARE NOT FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WOULD BE LIKELY
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED BY NHC FOR POSSIBLE
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT PUSHES WESTWARD OVER THE GULF. AS OF NOW,
THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DISORGANIZED. NHC IS GIVING IT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MARINERS ARE
ADVISED TO CHECK THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 98 77 98 76 / 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 91 80 / 0 0 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...SELF
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