765
FXUS64 KHGX 240512
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1212 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AVERAGING IN THE
104 TO 108 RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
WITH ENHANCED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE A FUNCTION OF A GULF DISTURBANCE
BEING MONITORED BY NHC FOR POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY VERY DISORGANIZED. SEE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS DOMINATE ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY.
HOWEVER, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL
TROUGH (SEE TROPICAL DISCUSSION BELOW), IS ALREADY SEEPING INTO
THE WESTERN GULF. I TEND TO THINK WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER VERY HOT
AND HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S (LOCALLY AROUND 100)
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING ADVISORY CRITERIA. BUT IF THE
APPROACHING CLOUDS FROM THE EAST ARRIVED EARLIER, I COULD SEE
PARTS OF OUR AREA BEING A TAD LESS HOT THAN MY FORECAST SUGGESTS.
IN ADDITION, WE DID MANAGE TO HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING OUR ATMOSPHERE MAY ALREADY BE
FEELING SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH TODAY, I OPTED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER FOR AREAS JUST NORTH
AND WEST OF GALVESTON BAY. NOW LET'S GET INTO THE WETTER PART OF
THE FORECAST.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAY
IMPACT AREAS OFFSHORE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES COULD EXPERIENCE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY
FRIDAY, THIS PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH FAR
INLAND. BEFORE I GO ON ABOUT THE SHOWERS/STORMS, THERE IS A HEAT
WILD CARD FOR OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, DEW POINTS ARE LESS LIKELY TO MIX
DOWNWARD, THUS REMAINING ELEVATED ALL DAY. IF HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE,
SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH, THEN OUR
NORTHERNMOST PINEY WOODS COUNTIES COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW, THAT'S A BIG 'IF.' NOW BACK TO THE RAIN.
A SURGE OF 2.50 - 3.00 INCH PWATS AND AMPLE LIFT WILL LIKELY BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE, I'D SAY LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET. THEREFORE, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING ON BOTH DAYS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND
COASTAL COUNTIES. PWATS DECREASE ON SUNDAY, BUT LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
THE EARLY OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY FEATURES THE TROUGH'S
DEPARTURE TO OUR WEST, AND THE RETURN OF MID/UPPER RIDGING. THAT
SUGGESTS HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SELF
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
WINDS CONTINUING THEIR SEASONAL CYCLE AGAIN, BUT PERHAPS WITH A
BIT MORE OF A PRONOUNCED SWING, WITH A DECIDED SW'LY DIRECTION
LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING SE OR EVEN ESE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PRE-DAWN
STRATUS AND/OR FOG SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ISSUE AWAY FROM THE TAF
SITES, BUT DO HAVE A BRIEF MVFR CIG AT CLL, AND VSBY FOR SGR/LBX.
AT THE I-45 TERMINALS, I HOLD IN VFR, BUT WITH LIBERAL MENTIONS OF
FEW/SCT CLOUDS AT MVFR LEVELS THAT CAN BE STEPPED UP IF A BROADER
STRATUS DECK MATERIALIZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE GULF WATERS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES FURTHER DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY ONSHORE AND LIGHT TO MODERATE. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET. THERE ARE TWO WILD CARDS REGARDING WINDS AND
SEAS. 1) THE PRESENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY - SATURDAY
COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF ANY THUNDERSTORM. 2) RECENT GLOBAL RUNS SUGGEST A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
WINDS ABOUT 5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
FOR DETAILS ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE, CHECK OUT THE TROPICAL
DISCUSSION BELOW.
TROPICAL
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2025
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR A TROUGH THAT
IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE REGION OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPMENT IS PRETTY LOW. THAT BEING SAID,
ANY LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
MONITORED CLOSELY. CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT AS PER NHC REMAINS 10
PERCENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 81 92 81 / 0 0 0 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...SELF
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