056
FXUS64 KHGX 072324
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
624 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- HOT AND HUMID AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES UP TO 107F ARE
POSSIBLE. PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET. THE SAME
SCENARIO IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX,
SUPPRESSING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
INLAND, LEADING TO MORE MOISTURE/HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT,
MOISTURE AND ANY SEA/BAYBREEZE BOUNDARY IS RESPONSIBLE OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COAST AND THEN INLAND. AS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS, MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THESE CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS AGAIN
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF WATERS/COAST IN THE MORNING, THEN MOVING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO PATCHY LOW-LYING
FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE HIGH-PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WESTWARD. THIS SHIFT WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAKNESSES IN THE MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN (TROUGH). INCREASING FORCING ALOFT AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES AND COVERAGE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE. FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE
ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HOWEVER,
AS THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY SEE HIGHS
DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. IT'S SUMMER IN TX, AND IT ALSO MEANS CONTINUING
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY WHEREVER YOU ARE.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS ARE MOSTLY JUST WEST OF THE METRO
INTERSTATE TERMINALS. THE STRONGEST CLUSTER WEST OF HOBBY SHOULD
TRACK NEAR, OR JUST SOUTH, OF SGR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND HAVE
INCLUDED A SHORT DURATION TEMPO FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOWER VSBY IN
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OTHERWISE, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN IN
AS WE LOSE HEATING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. FCST
REMAINS ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A REPEAT OF ISO-
SCT ACTIVITY AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY FROM THE METRO
AREA SOUTHWARD. 47
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS, VARIABLE AT TIMES AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE
ISLANDS EARLY IN THE MORNING, SPREADING INLAND DURING THE DAY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES AFTER SATURDAY AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 98 75 97 / 10 0 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 78 95 / 10 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 91 82 90 / 10 20 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...JM
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