035
FXUS64 KHGX 081817
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
117 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
THIS WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES UP TO 107°F ARE POSSIBLE. PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY!
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO OUR WEST WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS PATTERN HAS
BROUGHT EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY... CLEARLY DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. DESPITE MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WARM AND HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED, WE CAN
STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. AS WE
HAVE SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH PATCHY, LOW-LYING FOG POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SIGHTLY SHIFTS
WESTWARD, OPENING THE DOOR FOR MORE TROUGHINESS ACROSS OUR AREA. A
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
TX COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SUFFICIENT FORCING ALOFT, DIURNAL HEATING AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE DUE TO SEA/BAY BREEZE WILL SUPPORT BETTER RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
IT WON'T BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
AND EVEN FARTHER INLAND. THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (40 TO 60
PERCENT), ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND HUMID OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS;
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES, WE MAY SEE
HIGHS DROPPING A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 107F AT TIMES. DON'T FORGET TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY WHEREVER YOU ARE.
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL FOGGY SPOT LBX, WHICH IS AT
3SM RIGHT NOW. THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS,
RESULTING IN VFR AREA-WIDE WITH LARGELY LIGHT WINDS. DIRECTION
SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY, BUT A LITTLE MORE WEST OF S EARLY,
BECOMING MORE SE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING ISOLATED TSRA
IN THE AFTERNOON, AND KEEP PROB30S FOR THE HOUSTON TERMINALS (IAH,
HOU, SGR). THIS WILL NEED TO BE REFINED BY LATER CYCLES DEPENDING
ON HOW THE DAY EVOLVES. THIS EVENING, RETURN TO SKC AND NEARLY
CALM WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING OVER THE GULF, LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE MORNINGS. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STRONG STORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SEAS,
ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE UP TO 4-5 FT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 76 97 74 / 0 0 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 79 97 79 / 20 10 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 83 90 82 / 20 10 30 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...JM
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