606
FXUS64 KHGX 091116
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES UP TO 107°F ARE POSSIBLE. PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WE'VE OFFICIALLY MADE IT THROUGH THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST,
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY OUR HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR. LET'S TAKE
A LOOK AT THE STATS...WELL WE HAD THREE DAYS IN A ROW OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE REACHING 100°F AT THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR THE CITY
OF HOUSTON (IAH). WE MIGHT GET CLOSE TO ADDING ON A 4TH DAY TO
THAT STREAK, BUT BEYOND THAT WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES MELLOW OUT
INTO MAINLY THE LOW TO MID 90S AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION
DAY AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO SNEAK IN ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. NOW
WE'VE ALREADY MANAGED TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW STORMS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...AND WE'RE GOING TO ADD IN EVEN MORE FAVORABLE
LIFT...Y'ALL CAN DO THE MATH ON THAT ONE! RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO
THE 40-60+% RANGE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE
WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL BE YOUR BEST BET. SUNDAY WON'T BE A
WASHOUT, BUT YOUR CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN AND/OR HEARING THUNDER
WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SCENARIO WHERE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT PEAKS IN THE AFTERNOON, SO IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS YOU MAY WANT TO HAVE AN IDEA OF WHERE TO TAKE COVER
FROM THE RAIN AND/OR LIGHTNING.
THOSE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY "COOLER"
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT WE'LL KEEP THE
HUMIDITY IN PLACE. THAT MEANS EVEN THOUGH THE THERMOMETER WILL READ
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD (UPPER 90S POSSIBLE UP NORTH), HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE
WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDICES IN SOME AREAS WILL BE NEAR
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD AT TIMES, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS
THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID ISSUING ONE AS DEW POINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
EVEN IF A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT, THAT DOES NOT MAKE THE
HEAT ANY LESS DANGEROUS. THIS HEAT CAN STILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE
THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT STRESS OR SPEND EXTENDED AMOUNTS OF TIME
OUTDOORS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY: KNOW THE SIGNS
OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES, STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT, WEAR LOOSE/LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING AND SUNSCREEN,
AND ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON'T FORGET ABOUT
YOUR PETS AS WELL! IF THE GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR
HAND, THEN IT IS TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
GENERAL TROUGH-Y PATTERN. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY, BUT
THOSE THAT DO SEE RAIN ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY WILL SEE A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT. IF YOU WANT TO INCREASE YOUR ODDS OF SEEING
RAIN, WASHING YOUR CAR USUALLY DOES THE TRICK. I KNOW THE RAIN CAN
BE A BIT ANNOYING AT TIMES, BUT I'M SURE IF WE HAD TO CHOOSE BETWEEN
THIS CURRENT PATTERN AND THE PATTERN THAT WE HAD BACK IN THE
SUMMER OF 2023...I THINK WE'D CHOOSE OUR CURRENT ONE 100% OF THE
TIME!
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
PATCHY FOG AROUND TYPICAL PROBLEM SPOTS CXO AND LBX, WHICH SHOULD
IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR WITH LIGHT,
GENERALLY (BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY) SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS MIXED SIGNALS FOR ISOLATED TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS CXO
AS WE TRANSITION TO BETTER STORM COVERAGE NEXT WEEK. SO BEGIN WITH
SHRA POTENTIAL AT THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING, BECOMING PROB30S
FOR TSRA FOR THE METRO TERMINALS AND CXO. POTENTIAL FOR CONVERTING
THAT PROB30 TO VCTS/PREVAILING WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE DAY'S STORMS POP UP, BUT SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
SGR AND HOU OVER IAH AND CXO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE GULF
WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THEN MOVING INLAND IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN
AND AROUND ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE GOING
INTO THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE GULF
INCREASING TO 3-5 FT.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 74 96 75 / 10 0 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 98 79 95 78 / 30 10 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 20 30 50 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...BATISTE
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