021
FXUS64 KHGX 101134
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES STILL NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES INCREASE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT THE
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
I WANNA KNOW...HAVE YOU EVER SEEN THE RAIN? OH YOU HAVE? EVERY DAY?
YEAH THAT CHECKS OUT...WHELP RAIN CHANCES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE HIGHEST NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10,
BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW ROGUE STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY FURTHER NORTH.
AS WE SAW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND EVEN
SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. THOSE GUSTY WINDS CAN EXTEND AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME ABUNDANT. IF YOU HAVE
ANY OUTDOOR PLANS ON SUNDAY, YOU MAY WANT TO HAVE AN IDEA OF
WHERE TO TAKE COVER FROM THE RAIN AND/OR LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY IF
YOU ARE SOUTH OF I-10. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED GOING INTO
MONDAY AS PVA FROM THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE
AREA. ON THE PLUS SIDE, THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
WE LOSE OUT ON THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AFTER MONDAY, BUT WE
REMAIN GENERALLY IN A TROUGH-Y PATTERN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 WILL CONTINUE.
THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND THOUGH. IN
THE SUMMERTIME, RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES HAVE AN INVERSELY
PROPORTIONATE RELATIONSHIP...SO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES MEANS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES! EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
AROUND MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS WE HEAD BACK TOWARDS THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD AT
TIMES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE RETURN OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
LONG STORY SHORT: HOT AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2025
PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY. VCSH ALREADY
BEING SEEN AT LBX AND SOMETIMES GLS, AND WILL TRANSITION TO AFTN
TSRA A FARTHER INLAND. PROB30S FOR SGR, HOU, AND IAH AGAIN WITH A
SLIGHT FAVOR TO THE SOUTHERN PAIR VERSUS IAH. OPTED TO INCLUDE
GUSTY WINDS IN THE PROB30 TODAY AS ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WHICH PRODUCED NUMEROUS 20-30 KT GUSTS AND A FEW IN
EXCESS OF 30 KT. IF PRO20 OR PROB15 WERE AN ALLOWABLE MENTION,
WOULD USE THAT FOR CXO...SO EVEN THOUGH IT HAS NO PRECIP MENTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON, -TSRA NOT COMPLETELY OFF THE TABLE THERE EITHER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING
OVER THE GULF WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THEN MOVING INLAND
IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ELEVATED EARLY THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN, BUT EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES LEADING TO WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF INCREASING TO 3-5 FT.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 78 94 79 / 30 20 60 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 50 30 50 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...BATISTE
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