179
FXUS64 KHGX 120437
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1137 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
- DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TREND POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SCHOOL STARTS BACK FOR SOME MORE STUDENTS AROUND THE REGION
ON TUESDAY AND I KNOW THAT USUALLY ENTAILS HAVING THE FIRST DAY
OF SCHOOL FIT LAID OUT THE NIGHT BEFORE. IF YOU HAVE TO STAND
OUTSIDE AT THE BUS STOP IN THE MORNING AND YOU'RE NEAR THE COAST,
YOU MAY WANT TO ADD IN AN UMBRELLA OR PONCHO AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET YET ANOTHER EARLY START. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 5AM-9AM RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED, WE SHOULD
RECOVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. SOMETHING ELSE THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IS THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THESE MAY SEND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARDS THE BRAZOS VALLEY THAT COULD
GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS PER USUAL, ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
WITH SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINING BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO OUR EAST, WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH WEAKNESSES IN
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THIS'LL MAINLY BE FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. ON THE PLUS SIDE, THAT MEANS HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR THESE
AREAS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FURTHER NORTH AROUND THE BRAZOS
VALLEY, COULD SEE TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S AROUND
MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
SPEAKING OF UPPER 90S, THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO AN INCREASING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A
DECREASING TREND IN RAIN CHANCES. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 95°F STEADILY INCREASES AFTER FRIDAY, SO
WE COULD SEE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE WEEKEND. A MOISTURE PLUME MOVING LATE IN THE
WEEK WILL AT THE VERY LEAST KEEP HUMIDITY ELEVATED (HEAT INDICES
WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS), BUT MAY KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL IF IT CAN MANAGE TO
OVERCOME THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY!
BONUS NUGGET (SPACE EDITION): IF YOU'RE AN ASTRONOMY NERD LIKE ME,
YOU'LL BE EXCITED TO KNOW THAT WE ARE APPROACHING THE PEAK OF THE
PERSEID METEOR SHOWER (NIGHT OF AUGUST 12 TO THE DAWN OF AUGUST
13)! THE COUNTDOWN IS ON FOR THE LIFE OF A...METEOR! THE BEST
TIME TO HEAD OUTSIDE AND TRY TO SPOT A FEW METEORS WILL BE BETWEEN
1AM-5AM, BUT YOU MAY BE ABLE TO SPOT A FEW AS EARLY AS 10-11PM.
SKY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS. YOU'LL WANT TO FACE THE NORTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN SKY (TRY
TO PUT THE MOON AT YOUR BACK OR FIND SOMETHING TO BLOCK THE LIGHT
FROM IT IF POSSIBLE) AND PACK SOME PATIENCE AS LIGHT POLLUTION
FROM BOTH URBAN AREAS AND THE MOON WILL LIMIT WHAT WE CAN SEE.
ACCORDING TO THE AMERICAN METEOR SOCIETY, THE BEST RATES WILL BE
AROUND 15 METEORS PER HOUR DUE TO LIGHT POLLUTION. IF YOU'RE
FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO SEE ONE, DON'T FORGET TO MAKE A WISH! ★
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
REMNANT ISOLATED PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING. LOOK FOR SOME SCATTERED SHRA/TSTM REDEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST IN THE 9-15Z TIMEFRAME. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
A CELL OR TWO MIGRATES AS FAR NORTH AS HOBBY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SHOW
PRETTY LOW CHANCES NORTH OF THAT IN THE MORNING. BY AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED PRECIP WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FURTHER INLAND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE SEABREEZE. ALSO MIGHT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOWS GENERATED IN THE PANHANDLE AREA TONIGHT AND IF THEY
MANAGE TO WORK THEIR WAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TOWARDS OUR REGION. MOST
GUIDANCE POINTS OTHERWISE...BUT WILL BE TAKING A LOOK AT TRENDS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONGER CELLS TUESDAY, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE (WITH THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING) ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUE WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN MOVING INLAND IN
THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK, ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 95 76 / 20 0 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 95 79 / 40 10 40 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 83 91 83 / 60 20 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...47
MARINE...BATISTE
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