110
FXUS64 KHGX 121800
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
100 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TREND POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER-LVL
TROUGHINESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. THIS
WEAK TROUGHINESS, COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE (PWS INTO THE 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE), DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO
OUR EAST, SO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE PINEY WOODS AREA SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THEY MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO "ORPHAN" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS LOCATED IN NORTH-
CENTRAL TX. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALSO, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST, AND WEAK LOW-LVL VORTICITY, WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-45. RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
THIS IS DUE TO A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PEAK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS WESTWARD
INTO OUR REGION. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE. NOT ONLY THAT, BUT AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HUMID CONDITIONS, LEADING TO PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
CAN BE ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
ANOTHER DAY OF TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY,
HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. ACTIVITY
WILL POP UP ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNINGS, AND
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO SEA AND LAND BREEZES. LOW SEAS WILL ALSO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES/COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 96 76 / 30 20 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 96 79 / 30 20 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 83 91 83 / 50 10 30 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...JM
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