694
FXUS64 KHGX 122320
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TREND POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
WE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER-LVL
TROUGHINESS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO OUR EAST AND WEST. THIS
WEAK TROUGHINESS, COMBINED WITH DECENT MOISTURE (PWS INTO THE 1.9
TO 2.1 INCH RANGE), DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE IS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
STORMS. THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO
OUR EAST, SO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF THE PINEY WOODS AREA SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AS THEY MAY DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO "ORPHAN" OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS LOCATED IN NORTH-
CENTRAL TX. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALSO, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
ALONG THE COAST, AND WEAK LOW-LVL VORTICITY, WEAK FUNNEL CLOUDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST CHANCES EAST OF
I-45. RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET.
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE OF STORMS.
THIS IS DUE TO A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOUISIANA COAST WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PEAK OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN EARLY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, AND IN THE AFTERNOON FURTHER INLAND.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS WESTWARD
INTO OUR REGION. WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE. NOT ONLY THAT, BUT AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HUMID CONDITIONS, LEADING TO PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
CAN BE ANTICIPATED TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JM
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
ISOLATED SH/TS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL POP-UPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ESPECIALLY IF ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH ONE ANOTHER. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FURTHER INLAND
MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF REDUCED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN ANY OF
THE STRONGER STORMS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. AS FAR AS WINDS GO, EXPECTING WINDS
TO REMAIN BELOW 5 KT FOR MOST OF THE DAY, BUT THE SEABREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BRING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT FOR
TERMINALS NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-10 BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BATISTE
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNINGS, AND
ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO SEA AND LAND BREEZES. LOW SEAS WILL ALSO
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES/COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 96 76 96 / 20 40 10 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 96 79 96 / 20 50 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 91 83 92 / 10 30 10 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BATISTE
MARINE...JM
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