707
FXUS64 KHGX 131824
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
124 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FILTERS IN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TREND POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE
ISLANDS, WITH SOME ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE COMBINATION OF PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING, HIGH PWS (1.9 - 2.1 INCHES), AND THE INFLUENCE OF
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-MOVING, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
(NEAR SUNSET) WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING.
A RINSE-AND-REPEAT FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY. SHOWERS
WITH A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COAST, SLOWLY DEVELOPING
FARTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ARRIVE BY FRIDAY AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FILTERS IN. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD AREA OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR REGION, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH PASSING
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXES WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, INCLUDING THE COAST. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY; THOUGH IT WILL
STRONGLY DEPEND ON ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.
WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
BEYOND SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE A BIT BUT TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO INCREASE. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS TO
OUR EAST, BRINGING MORE SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IT WON'T BE COMPLETELY DRY AS SOME TROUGHINESS PERSISTS IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. THEREFORE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULE EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 107F. DON'T FORGET TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY!
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
GENERALLY, LIGHT WINDS (VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON) AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIKE WE'VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS, WE WILL SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COAST IN THE
MORNING, THEN POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE DEVELOP. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH NEAR DAWN TOMORROW, THEN WE
START THE PROCESS AGAIN.
FOWLER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING FURTHER INLAND
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN. OVERALL, LIGHT
WINDS (OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING, BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CYCLONE FORMATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST, OTHER THAN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 97 77 / 40 20 30 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 96 79 / 40 30 50 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 83 91 84 / 40 20 40 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...FOWLER
MARINE...JM
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