750
FXUS64 KHGX 141118
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 122 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
- TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- THE BEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MORE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FILTERS IN.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH AN INCREASING TEMPERATURE TREND POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ACTIVITY WILL START OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, AND WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INCREASE FOR FRIDAY AS A PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. INCREASED MOISTURE
ALONG WITH ENERGY IN THE H5 LEVEL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIE ON
A SW TO NE AXIS FROM JACKSON COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY AND TOWARDS THE
COAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE PROJECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING IN THE 1.8-2.1" RANGE AND CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL FORCING. CHANCES DECREASE SUNDAY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE IN
RESPONSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, PRIMARILY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEA BREEZE. LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA MAY
PROVIDE AN EXTRA BOOST OF MOISTURE/LIFT FOR ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK. IN ANY CASE, CONTINUE
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, STAY HYDRATED AND REMEMBER TO LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK!
FINALLY, TAKING A LOOK AT THE TROPICS. EARLIER ON IT WAS MENTIONED
THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WOULD LEAD TO INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION. AS STATED, THIS IS A RESULT OF A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS
TIME, AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE NHC HAS GIVEN THIS AREA A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS WE APPROACH PEAK HURRICANE SEASON, MAKE SURE
TO HAVE YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN PLACE. STAY VIGILANT AND UP TO
DATE ON THE LATEST FORECASTS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR, AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED.
SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISKS MAY ALSO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK
AS A RESULT OF THIS APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING.
THOUGH OUR TAFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH IS ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR
AREAS FARTHER INLAND. SOME HI-RES DATA SUGGEST THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON,
WE HAVE "DOWNGRADED" MANY INLAND TAFS FROM A TSRA PROB30 TO A SHRA
PROB30. THAT BEING SAID, WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT INLAND TSRA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TSRA FARTHER
INLAND. SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE WARRANTED. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SUB-VFR ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2025
A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN. OVERALL, LIGHT
WINDS (OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE MORNING, BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING) AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR A TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
CYCLONE FORMATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST, OTHER THAN AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND SWELLS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 77 96 76 / 30 10 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 79 94 79 / 60 10 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 84 91 84 / 50 20 40 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...ADAMS
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