052
FXUS64 KHGX 141833
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
133 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.
- TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNDAY WITH A DAILY RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS OUR REGION REMAINS SITUATED UNDER WEAK TROUGHINESS ALOFT,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND EAST. THIS SETUP
SUGGESTS WEAK LIFTING MECHANISMS IN PLACE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHICH MAY PROVIDE A MODEST TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AND EAST OF THE I-45
CORRIDOR.
THE FORECAST CHANGES BY FRIDAY AS A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INFLUX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INVEST98L CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GULF. MORE DETAILS ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL SECTION BELOW. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH, THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DESPITE HIGH PWS
ACROSS THE REGION (2.0 TO 2.2"), CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS IS STILL MODERATE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
WILL BE THE BATTLE BETWEEN HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRIER AIR
ABOVE 700:850 MB. THIS COULD LEAD TO A MIX OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS
AND BENEFICIAL RAIN. THE EXACT DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOST FAVORABLE LOW
TO MID- LEVEL MOISTURE. AS OF NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PROGGED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTH,
SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND. ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED
INLAND. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE FROM LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME STREET FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. THIS RISK
IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE DAY 2 WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WHERE PARTS OF THE REGION IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY BY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL SLIGHTLY SHIFT WESTWARD ON SUNDAY,
LEADING TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH A DAILY RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK DUE TO SEABREEZES
AND SEVERAL VORT MAXES MOVING ALONG THE PATTERN ALOFT.
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY EXPECTED AT THE COAST THIS MORNING.
THOUGH OUR TAFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH IS ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR
AREAS FARTHER INLAND. SOME HI-RES DATA SUGGEST THERE WILL ONLY BE
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA NORTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON,
WE HAVE "DOWNGRADED" MANY INLAND TAFS FROM A TSRA PROB30 TO A SHRA
PROB30. THAT BEING SAID, WE STILL CANNOT RULE OUT INLAND TSRA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR TSRA FARTHER
INLAND. SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE WARRANTED. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SUB-VFR ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE FURTHER INLAND IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS (UP TO 3 FT)
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS; HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, AN INCREASED IN WINDS AND SEAS
(ROUGHLY UP TO 5-6 FT) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARD INTO THE WEEKEND. MARINERS, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND STAY UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
JM
TROPICAL
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHICH IS NOW GIVEN A
MEDIUM 40% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TODAY AND FRIDAY.
BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODELS, THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM AND MORE UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES, THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE ALONG ALL GULF-FACING
BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. IF THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES ENOUGH, GUSTY WINDS
AND SEAS UP TO 6FT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
MARINERS, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 96 77 / 30 0 20 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 98 80 96 80 / 40 10 40 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 84 91 84 / 50 20 40 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...JM
TROPICAL...JM
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