847
FXUS64 KHGX 151129
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
- DISTURBANCE IN SW GULF HAS A MEDIUM (50%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
- TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE COAST.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER SUNDAY WITH A DAILY RISK
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SET TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AS INVEST 98L
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE TROPICAL SECTION BELOW.
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE, EXPECT MORE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULT IN MINOR FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM SOUTHERN BURLESON COUNTY TO CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIER MID-LEVELS CONTINUES TO POSE A CHALLENGE FOR EXACTLY HOW
MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. THE SETUP OF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE POCKETS OF MORE FAVORABLE
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO THIS, THE
MIXTURE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUITABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN FIRING UP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE COAST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH, WILL SEE AN
UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM SOUTH TEXAS. AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INLAND PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED,
WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE ENTIRETY OF SE TEXAS IN A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SATURDAY.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD PUT A DAMPER ON
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND HEAT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGHS IN THE
90S AREA WIDE; HOWEVER, VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURE MAY OCCUR WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON
SUNDAY; HOWEVER, RIDGING IS NOT LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT HAD
BEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS. BEGINNING TO SEE MORE WEAKNESSES IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN WITH POCKETS OF 500 MB VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH
EACH DAY DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES ALSO REMAIN ON THE
ELEVATED SIDE (1.8-2.0") THROUGH THE WEEK, SO EXPECT DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE (LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE).
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE 90S AREA WIDE.
HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, ANY RAIN/CLOUD COVER MAY
LEAD TO VARIATIONS IN OBSERVED TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO WHAT IS
FORECAST.
AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON IT IS IMPORTANT TO
GET FAMILIAR WITH YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS, STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECASTS, AND REMAIN VIGILANT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING IN OUR
SOUTHERN / COASTAL COUNTIES. THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
TO PUSH NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED AS IT DOES SO. SE WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. ANY SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
BY THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
OVERALL, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS (UP TO 3 FT)
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS; HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED, AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS (ROUGHLY UP TO 5-6
FT) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. MARINERS, REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
TROPICAL
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SW GULF, WHICH IS NOW GIVEN A MEDIUM
50% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND FORECAST MODELS, THIS SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED
FOR FRIDAY MORNING TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM AND MORE UPDATES
WILL BE PROVIDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, A
SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, THE
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE ALONG ALL GULF-FACING BEACHES THIS
WEEKEND. IF THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES ENOUGH, GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS UP
TO 6FT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MARINERS, REMAIN
WEATHER AWARE AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 76 95 75 / 30 10 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 79 95 78 / 50 20 50 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 50 30 40 10
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADAMS
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...ADAMS
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