861
FXUS64 KHGX 152350
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
DROPPING ITS PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT DOWN TO 0%.
- INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
INCREASED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NOW INLAND TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SATURDAY. WITH PW VALUES
PEAKING IN THE 2.2-2.4" RANGE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. IF ANY OF THESE STORMS SITS OVER AN AREA FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, WE COULD SEE BRIEF STREET FLOODING.
HOWEVER, BASED ON HOW FAST THE INITIAL RAIN BAND MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER TODAY, IT'D LIKELY TAKE A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RAIN BAND
TO HAVE A CHANCE OF STREET FLOODING. THE PROBABILITY OF THAT ISN'T
ZERO THOUGH, SO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR TODAY
AND ON SATURDAY. THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH EARLY-ISH IN THE
AFTERNOON TODAY WILL HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT ON THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AS THEY'LL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...BUT COULD SEE A
FEW SPOTS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 90S.
GOING INTO SATURDAY, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN, BUT IT WON'T BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE (AKA NOT ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO KEEP THE ELEVATED MOISTURE AT BAY). PLENTY OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. SO, ESSENTIALLY
WE'LL JUST BE HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES...NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT RIGHT?! AFTER MIDWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NUDGES
NORTHWESTWARD UP TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALLOWING FOR A
TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON INCREASING MOISTURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST LEADING TO...YOU GUESSED IT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO CONTINUE. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AND SEE IF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, WE'LL BE SOLIDLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN AS THAT PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES IN WE
DROP THINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE DO
FLIRT WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WITH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY! IF
YOU'RE PLANNING ON TAKING A BREAK FROM THE HEAT BY GOING TO BEACH,
BE ADVISED THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE SWELLS FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
WE STILL HAVE SOME STORMS PASSING THROUGH SE TX THIS EVENING AND
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATED EARLY TONIGHT.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT, HOWEVER, WE MAY GET SOME PASSING SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
S-SE IN THE MORNING AND STRENGTHEN. WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SAT, STARTING ALONG THE WATERS AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING INLAND DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE IN THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HAS JUST MOVED INLAND NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER. SEAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY WERE REPORTED TO ALREADY BE NEAR 8
FT EARLIER THIS MORNING DUE TO SWELLS FROM THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MATAGORDA BAY AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS COULD REACH 8-10 FT IN THE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. CAUTION FLAGS HAVE BEEN RAISED FOR THE GULF
WATERS ADJACENT TO GALVESTON BAY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AS WELL. AS
FAR AS WINDS GO, THE GULF WATERS (ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO MATAGORDA
BAY) COULD SEE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS WELL ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES. WINDS
AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY, BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
PEAK RAIN CHANCES WILL BE TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
SEE THE TROPICAL SECTION DOWN BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.
BATISTE
TROPICAL
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS HAD EVERYONE'S ATTENTION OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS OFFICIALLY MOVED INLAND NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE RIVER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT ITS
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING IS AT 0%. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THIS DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING AND WAS
UNABLE TO LOCATE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SO IT SIMPLY JUST
RAN OUT OF TIME TO DEVELOP. OUR IMPACTS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE
REMAIN EXACTLY THE SAME THOUGH WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES DUE TO
THE SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD LEAD TO BRIEF STREET FLOODING IF IT SITS OVER AN AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ALONG THE COAST, THERE WILL BE
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WATERS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF
CAUTION FLAGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MARINERS
SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 97 76 98 / 10 30 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 80 96 78 97 / 20 40 0 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 91 83 92 / 30 30 0 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CMOS-350-
370.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CMOS-375.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...COTTO
MARINE...BATISTE
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