038
FXUS64 KHGX 161137
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
637 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND...BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COAST...MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE UPDATED FLAG WARNING SYSTEM
(BEACH FLAGS) IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
WARM AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS
FROM NEAR SURFACE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL HELP LIMIT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH, WITH PWS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8-2.2 INCHES. THUS, BE READY FOR IT TO FEEL A
LITTLE HOTTER THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
SEA BREEZE AND STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAN ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF STRONG STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY MAY BE
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS, THUS, PONDING OF WATER ALONG ROADS AND LOW
LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR.
ALONG THE UPPER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD ON
MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TX COAST. THE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO ANCHOR OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY
AND REMAIN OVER THAT REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
ALLOWING WEAKNESSES AND VORT MAXES TO PASS THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
OVER SOUTHEAST TX THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE USUAL SUMMER PATTERN
IS TO CONTINUE, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND AREAS SOUTH OF I-10, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS FURTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING INCREASES. STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING TO EARLY NIGHT HOURS WITH
AS THE ENVIRONMENT COOLS DOWN AND BECOMES MORE STABLE.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE ARE EXPECTING
SLIGHTLY HOTTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE COULD BE SEEING HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110
DEGREES F ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED
FOR SATURDAY. IT IS RECOMMENDED TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU PLAN TO WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTDOORS. BE SURE TO
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, USE SUNSCREEN. NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN A VEHICLE. REMEMBER, IF ITS
TOO HOT FOR YOUR HAND, THEN ITS TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED RAIN ACTIVITY.
COTTO
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY S
TO SE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. ANY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. EXPECT 2-3 FOOT SEAS THIS
WEEKEND AND 1-2 FOOT SEAS NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND WILL BECOME VARIABLE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NEXT WEEK, A DAILY WIND PATTERN CAN BE
EXPECTED OF LIGHT WINDS BECOMING N-NE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND BECOMING E-SE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS.
THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF
FACING COAST THIS WEEKEND.
COTTO
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 97 76 98 76 / 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 95 79 97 80 / 40 10 30 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 93 82 / 30 10 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COTTO
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...COTTO
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