750
FXUS64 KHGX 161748
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAT INDICES
VERY NEAR HEAT ADVISORY TERRITORY...BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY.
- THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COAST...MAKE SURE TO CHECK THE UPDATED FLAG WARNING SYSTEM
(BEACH FLAGS) IF YOU PLAN TO VISIT THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
IT'S NATIONAL TELL A JOKE DAY AND I HAVE ONE FOR Y'ALL! WHAT IS A
PIRATE'S FAVORITE WEATHER MODEL? THE H-TRIPLE RRRRRR (HRRR)!
WE'LL CHALK THAT ONE UP TO BEING SO BAD THAT IT'S GOOD...BUT
ANYWAY LET'S TALK ABOUT THE FORECAST!
THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED
INLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON IS LEADING TO QUITE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF ~1230 PM CDT,
THERE IS A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN NORTH OF I-10 HEADING NORTHWARD AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-45. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TODAY IN ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS
(I'M SURE SOME OF YOU CAN CONFIRM THIS) AND AS A RESULT MOST OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS REMAINS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS WELL IN A
FEW OF THESE DOWNPOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MAINLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S, BUT THOSE THAT MANAGE TO AVOID THE
RAIN COULD FLIRT WITH REACHING THE UPPER 90S. WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WE WILL SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS THAT
WILL SEE 108+°F HEAT INDICES (MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WIDESPREAD WILL
THESE VALUES BE), SO A HEAT ADVISORY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHETHER
OR NOT AN ADVISORY IS ISSUED, PLEASE BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY!
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN TODAY AND SUNDAY, BUT
EXPECTING RAINFALL COVERAGE TO BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY. THIS MEANS
THAT THERE'S LESS POTENTIAL FOR THOSE BRIEF REPRIEVES FROM THE
HEAT. STILL ANTICIPATING THE SEABREEZE AND LINGERING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO HELP GENERATE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT
THERE'LL BE LESS OF THAT TO GO AROUND. HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY LOOK
TO PEAK IN THE 105-109°F RANGE WITH A LOT OF LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE, SO DON'T BE TOO SURPRISED IF THERE'S A
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED.
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK, BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A BIT OF A PATTERN SHIFT AFTER
MIDWEEK (FEATURING MORE RAIN). AFTER MIDWEEK, THE CENTER OF THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH NUDGES NORTHWESTWARD UP TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ALLOWING FOR A TROUGH TO PUSH INTO THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW PW VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND WE'LL HAVE TO
MONITOR TRENDS TOWARDS TO SEE IF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ARE ALREADY IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY AND AT THE MOMENT I SEE NO ARGUMENTS AGAINST THAT RISK
EXPANDING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON A DECREASING TREND AFTER MIDWEEK. WE'LL TRADE OUT THE HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UNTIL THEN
THOUGH, IT'S GONNA BE HOT GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO BE SURE TO
CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY ESPECIALLY IF YOU'LL BE OUTDOORS
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME: KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES, STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT,
WEAR LOOSE/LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING AND SUNSCREEN, AND ALWAYS LOOK
BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS AS
WELL! IF THE GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR HAND, THEN IT
IS TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS GENERALLY S
TO SE AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF TSRA. ANY SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS ARE STILL LINGERING AROUND 4 FT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL CONTINUE ON A GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. LINGERING SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG GULF-FACING BEACHES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS STARTING OUT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AFTER MIDWEEK.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 98 77 98 / 10 10 0 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 98 80 98 / 0 20 10 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 82 94 / 0 20 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ436>439.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...BATISTE
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