449
FXUS64 KHGX 170533
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- HOT AND HUMID TODAY AND MONDAY (AS IF IT'S NOT EVER HOT AND
HUMID HERE IN AUGUST, BUT JUST MAYBE A LITTLE MORESO). TAKE IT
EASY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
- SOME ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- LOOKS LIKE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK IN REGARDS TO DAILY
RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY WITH MID-UPPER
RIDGING STRETCHING FROM MO-TX. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
TO AT LEAST DELAY ANY ONSET OF PRECIP TO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND ALLOW THINGS TO HEAT UP. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 104-
108F RANGE. SOME INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY FLIRT WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (108+), BUT LIMITED DURATION AND AREAL EXTENT WILL
PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ONE AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFTS
WATCH TRENDS AND ISSUE IF NEED BE.
ANOTHER THING THE NEXT SHIFT OR TWO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS
TSTM POTENTIAL LATER TODAY. OTHER THAN THE TYPICAL ISOLATED
SEABREEZE CELL OR TWO, A MIX OF INCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE (GFS, ARW,
FV3) SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DEVELOPMENT POPPING UP TO OUR NORTHEAST AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED. DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE EITHER WAY, BUT HAVE
NUDGED NBM SUGGESTIONS UP TO AT LEAST INCLUDE THE MENTION. SOME
LOCALIZED, HEALTHY WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD ANY
STRONG CELLS MATERIALIZE.
MID-UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. WITH HEIGHTS FALLING LOCALLY, WE
SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPS TREND DOWNWARD A TOUCH. AND WITH A LIGHT FLOW
REGIME, PW'S IN THE 1.9-2.3" RANGE, DAYTIME HEATING, SEABREEZE, AND
INTERMITTENT DISTURBANCES ROTATING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WE SHOULD SEE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS PRETTY MUCH EACH DAY. IT'S A TOUGH PATTERN TO
NARROW DOWN THE DETAILS ON A DAILY BASIS AS A LOT OF IT WILL BE RUN
ON THE MESOSCALE. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN EACH DAY, BUT SUSPECT
YOU'LL END UP WITH SOME. WE WILL, HOWEVER, NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THOSE SNEAKY STRONGER SW MOVERS AS WELL AS PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS. 47
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER ALL SE TX SITES FOR THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SITES COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING EARLY SUN MORNING, BUT IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY
15Z. SE WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VRB FROM 03Z-18Z. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 06-12 KTS AFTER 18Z.
ISO CHANCES FOR SH/TS SUN AFTERNOON.
COTTO
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
SEAS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH SUCH A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WE SHOULD SEE AN EVIDENT LANDBREEZE AND SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION EMERGE ON A DAILY BASIS WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS LATE
AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS FOLLOWED BY AN ONSHORE DIRECTION IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
WE MIGHT NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME EVENING STORMS IN THE
GALVESTON BAY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD ANY STORMS DEVELOP TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND SURVIVE THE TREK TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE DECAYING.
THERE IS A WIDE MIX OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN THESE REGARD (STORMS/NO
STORMS), BUT MARINERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO TAKE THIS POTENTIAL INTO
ACCOUNT.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY EACH DAY THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. SOME DAYS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN OTHERS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 98 76 97 / 10 30 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 30 50 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 93 82 93 / 20 40 30 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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