543
FXUS64 KHGX 171745
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS...BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
THERE'S ONLY SO MANY WAYS TO SAY THAT IT'S HOT...THAT MEANS IT'S
TIME TO BREAK OUT THE OL' HANDY DANDY THESAURUS TO FIND A NEW WORD!
HMMM LET'S SEE THERE'S "BLAZING"..."SCORCHING"....OOO NOW HERE'S A
FUN ONE..."ROASTING"! MAKES SENSE BECAUSE WITH MID-LEVEL PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TODAY PAIRED WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR AT THE 90TH
PERCENTILE, WE'LL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. SO, YOU'LL FEEL LIKE YOU'RE BEING ROASTED IF YOU'RE
OUTSIDE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THIS AFTERNOON. WE ALL KNOW
THE OLD SAYING THOUGH..."IT'S NOT THE HEAT THAT GETS YOU, IT'S
THE HUMIDITY" AND WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF HUMIDITY TO GO AROUND TOO.
DEW POINTS STARTED OUT IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S (YOU READ THAT
RIGHT) THIS MORNING, BUT WE SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-
LEVEL HEAT INDICES. NOW THERE WILL BE SOME LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE
HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 108°F THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SINCE
THESE VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT WIDESPREAD OR OCCUR FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED.
REGARDLESS OF THAT THOUGH, YOU SHOULD STILL PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'LL BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
"WELL GOOD THING THERE'LL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON TO COOL US OFF.....RIGHT?.....RIGHT?!" WELL...RAIN
CHANCES ARE MORE ON THE LOW SIDE TODAY (~20%), SO MOST OF US
WON'T SEE ANY RAIN. THE 12Z CAMS SHOW A FEW SPECS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. THERE
IS ONE THING TO WATCH FOR THOUGH...A COUPLE OF THE CAMS SHOW A
WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS PUSHING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT'S NOT A SURE THING
BY ANY MEANS, BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THEN WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT
WILL BE ON A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TREK. THIS MEANS WE'LL BE IN
POSITION FOR VARIOUS DISTURBANCES TO WRAP AROUND FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH MEANS RAIN CHANCES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER THAN
TODAY GOING INTO MONDAY AND BEYOND. MID-LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS (FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN SOME LOCATIONS AT TIMES) INTO MIDWEEK.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
A TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST AFTER MIDWEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW PW VALUES PEAKING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS TO SEE IF THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS. PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY ARE ALREADY OUTLINED IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THAT EXPANDS TO ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON
THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
A DECREASING TREND AFTER MIDWEEK. WE'LL TRADE OUT THE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UNTIL THEN THOUGH,
IT'S GONNA BE HOT SO BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'LL BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME:
KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES, STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, WEAR SUNSCREEN, AND ALWAYS ALWAYS
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR VEHICLE. DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS AS
WELL! IF THE GROUND IS TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR HAND, THEN IT IS
TOO HOT FOR THEIR PAWS.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
AREAS OF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME SE 7-10
KT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED. BUT LOW COVERAGE
RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE OF SHRA/TSRA IMPACTING TAF SITES. SO NO
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE TAFS THOUGH THE RADAR WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN CASE AMENDMENTS ARE NEEDED. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
EAST THIS EVENING. BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW. COULD NOT RULE
OUT AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FLUCTUATE DUE TO THE
LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE DAILY. EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT
TO MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDWEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 98 76 98 / 10 30 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 10 50 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 93 82 93 / 10 30 30 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...BATISTE
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