174
FXUS64 KHGX 181134
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
634 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2025
- HOT AND HUMID AGAIN TODAY WITH HEAT INDICIES PEAKING IN THE 104-
108F RANGE.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON A DAILY BASIS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST/REASONING
THIS WEEK. THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT
WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. THOUGH DAYTIME HEAT WILL BRIEFLY
FLIRT WITH NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
AS HEIGHTS FALL AND INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN WORK IN SOME OF THEIR
MAGIC.
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THOUGH WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE CELLS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED,
THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS SUCH (INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING) WHEREAS I
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED 25-45MPH GUSTS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY OF THE MORE ROBUST CELLS AS THEY COLLAPSE.
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS
EVENING. FAIRLY SIMILAR SET-UP TUESDAY, THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE A BIT
MORE COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THAT REGION FROM THE ENE TO WSW.
WE CAN EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND REPETITIVE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRETTY MUCH EVERY DAY...WITH BEST OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
PROBABLY IN THE THURS-FRI TIMEFRAME. THIS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS: A LIGHT WIND PATTERN, INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS, DAYTIME
HEATING, THE INFLUENCE OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE, AND SMALL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE.
FORECASTING THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE STORMS EACH DAY
WILL BE CHALLENGING AS THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY SMALLER,
MESOSCALE FEATURES. WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN ON A GIVEN DAY,
IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL BY
THE END OF THE WEEK - VERY BROADLY AVERAGING 0.5-2.0". THOUGH
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN, WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR ANY CURRENTLY UNFORESEEN STRONGER IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW ALOFT THAT BEEN KNOWN TO OCCUR IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, AS
WELL AS INTERACTIONS BETWEEN DIFFERENT BOUNDARIES THAT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. BUT, THERE'S NOT
MUCH SKILL TRYING TO PINPOINT THESE SEVERAL DAYS IN ADVANCE. 47
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR/MVFR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BECOME E TO SE
5-10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA BETWEEN
21-24Z. ANY TSRA SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER
06Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PREVAILING LANDBREEZE AND SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION FEATURING VARIABLE TO OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTIONS LATE AT
NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING AND A MORE MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SCATTERED STRONG STORMS DURING THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY WITH A
PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE. WE'LL BE MONITORING TRENDS. OTHERWISE, A
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DAILY
BASIS. 47
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 76 98 76 / 30 30 40 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 79 97 79 / 40 40 50 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 94 82 92 82 / 20 30 60 30
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...47
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