790
FXUS64 KHGX 181726
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1226 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR
ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES...BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDWEEK.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDWEEK WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
IT'S VERY FITTING THAT TODAY IS NATIONAL FAJITA DAY SINCE WE'RE
FEELING THE SIZZLE FROM THE MID-AUGUST HEAT. I THINK THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A LOT MORE BEARABLE IF IT CAME WITH SIDES OF
TORTILLAS, GUACAMOLE, AND CHEESE. IF YOU WALK OUTSIDE YOU CAN JUST
FEEL HOW STEAMY IT IS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 90S. THE HUMIDITY ADDS SOME EXTRA SPICE TO THE GRILL
(YEAH I'M STILL THINKING ABOUT THOSE FAJITAS), WHICH LEADS TO
HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. DEW POINTS MIXING OUT
INTO THE LOW 70S LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
ADVISORY-LEVEL HEAT INDICES (108+°F). NOW THERE WILL BE SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 108°F THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, SINCE THESE VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
WIDESPREAD OR OCCUR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A HEAT
ADVISORY IS NOT IN EFFECT. REGARDLESS OF THAT THOUGH, YOU SHOULD
STILL PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY ESPECIALLY IF YOU'LL BE OUTDOORS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A BRIEF COOLDOWN DUE TO ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGHER TODAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH IS GRADUALLY NUDGING
NORTHWESTWARD, WHICH PLACES US IN POSITION TO GET PASSING
SHORTWAVES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SPEAKING OF SHORTWAVES, A
RATHER ROBUST ONE LOOKS TO MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE
TIMING OF IT ISN'T THE BEST BUT IT COULD STILL LEAD TO A CLUSTER
OF SHOWERS/STORMS. IF THOSE MANAGE TO DEVELOP WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR GUSTY WINDS IF ANY OF THOSE STORMS MANAGES TO BECOME
STRONG.
500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECREASING TREND GOING INTO
MIDWEEK AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH RETREATS NORTHWESTWARD, BUT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WE'LL
STILL MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND
FLIRT WITH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN SOME LOCATIONS. AFTER MIDWEEK
IS WHEN THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING...A SUMMER COLD
FRONT?! NOW DON'T GET TOO EXCITED AND GO LOOKING IN THE BACK OF
YOUR CLOSET FOR JACKETS, IT'S STILL AUGUST! SINCE THE CENTER OF
THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, A TROUGH
WILL BE ABLE TO SLIDE DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO PW VALUES SURGING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THERE WILL BE
MULTIPLE FACTORS AT PLAY HERE IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE AND
EXACTLY WHERE THE RAIN WILL FALL EACH DAY, BUT JUST KNOW THAT
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS END OF THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME OF THAT RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY. AREAS NORTH OF I-10
ARE ALREADY OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THAT EXPANDS TO ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
STICK AROUND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
A DECREASING TREND AFTER MIDWEEK. WE'LL TRADE OUT THE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. UNTIL THEN THOUGH, IT'S GONNA BE HOT, SO BE SURE
TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY ESPECIALLY IF YOU'LL BE
OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME: KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES, STAY HYDRATED, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE
HEAT, WEAR SUNSCREEN, AND ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK YOUR
VEHICLE. DON'T FORGET ABOUT YOUR PETS AS WELL! IF THE GROUND IS
TOO HOT FOR THE PALM OF YOUR HAND, THEN IT IS TOO HOT FOR THEIR
PAWS.
BATISTE
AVIATION
(18Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
VFR AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE WINDS (MORE ONSHORE
THAN OTHER DIRECTIONS TODAY, MORE NEERLY THAN OTHER DIRECTIONS
TOMORROW) PUT FOCUS ON SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL. KEEP PROB30S AT MOST
SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUIDANCE IS REALLY GUNG HO ON TSRA
AROUND HOUSTON METRO BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z, WITH SUITE OF SHORT
RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING A PEAK OF 70 PERCENT TSRA PROBABILITY
OVER HARRIS COUNTY AT 23Z. HAVE STEPPED THE METRO TERMINALS UP TO
TEMPO TO REFLECT THAT. TONIGHT, A QUICK AND WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHRA OR MAYBE EVEN A STROKE OF LIGHTNING
OR TWO, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF PROB30 -SHRA FROM 10-14Z OR SO. WITH
THE SUBTLE CHANGE IN WINDS FOR TOMORROW, AM HOLDING OFF ON ANY
MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AS THAT ROUND MAY BE A
BIT SUBDUED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FLUCTUATE DUE TO THE
LANDBREEZE/SEABREEZE DAILY. EXPECT OFFSHORE WINDS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT TO MORNING HOURS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDWEEK. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
BATISTE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 98 76 98 / 10 50 10 50
HOUSTON (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 40 70 10 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 93 / 50 70 20 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BATISTE
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...BATISTE
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