895
FXUS64 KHGX 191111
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
611 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDWEEK WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SFC RIDGING.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN 500 MB HIGH RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW CONUS
TODAY. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPENING TROUGHINESS IN
OUR AREA, PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LIFT AND
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE, A PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR, THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
LIBERTY AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO OUR MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT (LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KG OR LESS), THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT. THE SITUATION
COULD BE A BIT DIFFERENT AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH THE COMBINATION OF MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE, DAYTIME HEATING, AND
AMPLE MOISTURE (PWS NEARING 2.1 INCHES), THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 AFTER MID-LATE
MORNING. A SIMILAR SCENARIO IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
PARADE OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUES. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK/SLOW-MOVING
COLD FRONT. A COLD FRONT IN AUGUST GENERALLY BRINGS LESS HOT
CONDITIONS AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES. THIS IS WHAT WE CAN EXPECT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE
ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2.0 INCHES, LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES. IN FACT, A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD PRODUCE POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL, RESULTING IN MINOR STREET FLOODING. CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL
MODERATE. FOR NOW, EXPECTED INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WPC PLACED OUR REGION
UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WASHES OUT AND/OR BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES, WITH THE BEST PROBABILITIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE HEAT CONTINUES. DESPITE INCREASING
TROUGHINESS ALOFT, 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOW VALUES INTO THE 19 TO 23
DEGC RANGE, SUGGESTING SURFACE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH
DAY. GIVEN INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE FROPA, HIGHS
COULD POTENTIALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE, AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIME OF
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. THE MAIN KEY POINTS HERE ARE THAT THE HEAT
CONTINUES AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS, HEAT INDICES
COULD REACH THE 105 TO 107F IN SOME AREAS. DON'T FORGET TO PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY!
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA
ACTIVITY. WE THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TSRA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSRA COVERAGE THIS MORNING
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING TO WORK WITH.
THAT BEING SAID, SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, WE WILL WATCH THE RADAR
CLOSELY IN CASE AMENDMENTS TO ADD TSRA ARE NEEDED. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA. IN ADDITION, WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE E TO SE, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
GENERALLY, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
WORK-WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THE EFFECT OF
LANDBREEZE AND SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OFFSHORE WINDS LATE
NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNINGS, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK SUMMER COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED
RAIN/STORMS AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF REDUCED VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR/AROUND ANY STRONG STORMS.
JM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 76 98 75 / 40 10 50 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 97 78 / 60 10 60 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 93 81 / 70 20 40 40
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...JM
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