424
FXUS64 KHGX 191804
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
104 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW.
- WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BROUGHT ABOUT A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ALL THE WAY FROM THE PINEY WOODS
REGION NEAR DAWN THIS MORNING DOWN THROUGH MATAGORDA BAY BY NOON.
SOME ADDITIONAL POP-UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST UP THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER AS THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
LIKELY WORKED OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL WEAKNESSES ALOFT
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MOIST AIR WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TOMORROW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THEN STALL NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND BRINGING A SURGE IN PWATS
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. WITH THIS BOUNDARY NEARBY, HIGH MOISTURE,
AND SUMMER-TIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
DO BEGIN TO LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARY OFF THE
COAST. HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN CHANCES LOWER, THEY DO NOT
BECOME ZERO - ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE SOME HIGHER PWATS
LINGER.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION (SLIGHTLY COOLER AT THE COAST) WITH HEAT INDICES RISING
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS. PARTS OF THE PINEY WOODS MAY HAVE HEAT
INDICES APPROACH 105-108 DEGREES, JUST BEGINNING TO TOUCH ON HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY PRODUCTS
UNTIL EITHER THE LIKELIHOOD OF 108+ DEGREE HEAT INDICES
INCREASES. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING ON THURSDAY
DUE TO THAT BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES/CLOUD COVER LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO CREEP BACK UP
INTO THE MID OR UPPER 90S OVER THE WEEKEND AS SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
A MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA
ACTIVITY. WE THINK THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED TSRA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSRA COVERAGE THIS MORNING
SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING TO WORK WITH.
THAT BEING SAID, SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THEREFORE, WE WILL WATCH THE RADAR
CLOSELY IN CASE AMENDMENTS TO ADD TSRA ARE NEEDED. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF TSRA. IN ADDITION, WINDS MAY PICK UP SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE E TO SE, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WIND DIRECTION WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DRIVEN BY THE LAND BREEZE/SEA BREEZE WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO MID MORNING PERIOD AND THEN
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOONS. A WEAK BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
LIKELY INCREASING COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 76 98 75 / 40 0 50 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 96 78 97 78 / 50 10 50 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 82 92 81 / 60 20 30 50
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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