556
FXUS64 KHGX 200535
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS.
- A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON THURSDAY & FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
TODAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR PATTERN WEATHER-WISE AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE PERIPHERAL OF THE RIDGE TO PASS OVER SE TEXAS
FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD TAP INTO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CAM GUIDANCE HAS FACED
DIFFICULTY WITH DEPICTING CONVECTION THESE LAST FEW DAYS, THOUGH THE
BROAD CONSENSUS BETWEEN MODELS PUTS GREATER STORM COVERAGE & RAIN
CHANCES AROUND/NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, COINCIDING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, THOUGH AGAIN TAKE ALL THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, AS IT
SEEMS THE 00Z CAMS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB INITIALIZING ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM IN OKLAHOMA. THIS ENVIRONMENT STILL FEATURES HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY, THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SEES A MORE NOTICEABLE PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY, WHICH SHOULD PUSH INTO SE TEXAS ON
THURSDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL OUT NEAR THE COAST (THOUGH I WOULDN'T
GET VERY ATTACHED TO AN EXACT TIMING RIGHT NOW BASED THE SHAKY CAM
PERFORMANCE). POOLING MOISTURE, THE INFLUX OF ADDITIONAL LIFT
PROVIDED FROM THE BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING OVER THE
AREAS SHOULD ENABLE GREATER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL STILL ENABLE
STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THESE DAYS ESPECIALLY. WPC CURRENTLY HAS SE TEXAS UNDER
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. THE
00Z CAMS SEEM RATHER SPARSE WITH CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY, THOUGH
AGAIN I'D BE SKEPTICAL TO TAKE THIS AS TRUTH THIS FAR OUR GIVEN THE
CURRENT RUNS STRUGGLES TO CAPTURE ONGOING ACTIVITY. FRIDAY ISN'T
OUTLOOKED YET, BUT REASONABLY COULD SEE A MARGINAL RISK AS WELL
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT EVOLVES, THOUGH THE
MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
THIS POINT.
RIDGING IS POISED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD BROADLY REDUCE POPS (WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS SHIFTING FURTHER OFFSHORE) AND PULL UP TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/QUEBEC/ONTARIO IS POISED TO PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY &
ROUND OF SHORTWAVES TOWARDS OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GREATER MODEL
SPREAD EMERGES AT THIS POINT OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BROAD
STROKES REMAIN THE SAME AS PREDOMINANTLY HOT WEATHER WITH DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST.
03
AVIATION
(00Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2025
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE/WEAKEN
SOUTHWEST, AWAY FROM TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN, A
TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDDAY. GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. OVERALL, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG, MOSTLY LOW-LYING
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND CXO AND SGR TERMINALS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
JM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY CALM WITH 1-3 FT SEAS AND SEABREEZE-
LANDBREEZE DRIVEN WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS (OFFSHORE/NORTHWESTERLY
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN ONSHORE/SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A DAILY
POSSIBILITY, PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE GREATEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES LATER DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
03
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 75 95 74 / 30 40 60 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 77 92 77 / 40 40 80 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 80 91 81 / 30 60 70 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
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