855
FXUS64 KHGX 201824
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
124 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS.
- A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD INCREASE
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE ON TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- RAIN CHANCES LOWER OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME DIURNAL STORMS INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
FIRST LET'S TALK ABOUT RAINFALL CHANCES:
RADAR HAS BEEN MUCH QUIETER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
BUT WE CAN EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND HIGH MOISTURE
TRIGGERS POP-UP ACTIVITY. LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF I-10 NEAR THE SEA BREEZE, BUT THESE STORMS MAY POP-UP ANYWHERE
IN THE REGION. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH,
AND BECOME STALLED AT TIMES, THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CREATE A SURGE IN
PWATS OUT AHEAD OF IT LEADING TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
LOWER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION,
HOWEVER COASTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO
LINGERING HIGH MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK
LIKELY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND.
NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT TEMPERATURES:
TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, AND
THEN LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST. HEAT INDICES AREA-WIDE WILL
REACH TO NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS
CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER PRODUCING BORDERLINE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY COOL TOMORROW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES TOMORROW AND FRIDAY, AND THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURE MAY BEGIN TO RISE BACK UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY NEXT WEEK, BUT AGAIN INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES MAY LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE 70S INLAND AND LOW 80S AT THE COAST.
FOWLER
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR/MVFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING. BY
THIS AFTERNOON, THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL SHRA/TSRA
THAT PUSHES INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH. UNCERTAIN EXISTS
REGARDING HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH THIS SHRA/TSRA IS ABLE TO PUSH. FOR
NOW, THE TAFS INDICATE A CHANCE OF THESE STORMS MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST, WITH OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF TSRA. ANY TSRA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGH WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2025
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
WIND DIRECTIONS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE SEA BREEZE/LAND BREEZE
PROCESS (OFFSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHT TO MORNING PERIODS, THEN
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS). THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT COVERAGE IS
LIKELY TO BE HIGHEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK, SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THE STORMS.
FOWLER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 75 94 74 / 40 30 50 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 92 77 / 30 30 70 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 81 91 80 / 30 30 70 70
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FOWLER
AVIATION...SELF
MARINE...FOWLER
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