189
FXUS64 KHGX 071145
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
645 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY, AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
- DRIER AND HOT DAYS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXCEPT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
- COMFORTABLE NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WELL SATURATED WITH PW VALUES INTO THE 1.9
TO 2.2 INCH RANGE. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG THE
COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
STALLING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBTLE IMPULSES OF ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE WEST
OF I-45, AND SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE THE HIGHEST PW VALUES PERSIST.
RIDGING BUILDING IN TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MORE STABLE AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SE TX AFTER MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE COAST AND GULF WATERS, WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DAILY
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL, EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY WEEK FOR MOST AREAS, WITH LOW
HUMIDITY MAKING NIGHTS MORE COMFORTABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. HIGHS WILL BECOME EVEN HOTTER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AS RIDGING AXIS BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
JM
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
PRIMARY CHALLENGE REMAINS IN RECONCILING MODELS AND REALITY, WHICH
ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT. VCSH CLEAR FOR CLL AND UTS
AND PROB30S FOR LBX AND GLS GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP MORNING PROB30S FOR CXO AND IAH GIVEN THE SHRA PROMPTING
MENTIONS FURTHER NORTH, AND SHRA NEAR 6R3 SHOWING THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DESPITE WHAT THE MODELS SAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUS REALLY SHOULD BE TO THE SW OF ALL TAF SITES,
BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PRESENT AND A FUNCTIONALLY STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE AREA, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ALIGNMENT OF FACTORS TO GET SOME
RAIN, ALBEIT BRIEF. BECAUSE OF THIS, KEEP PROB30S FOR -TSRA FROM
HOU COASTWARD, BUT FUTURE CYCLE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THIS EVOLVES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, ALONG WITH MODERATE
WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT, BEFORE STALLING ALONG THE TX COAST/NORTHWESTERN
GULF THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. WHILE WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH/SUBSIDE AFTER TUESDAY, A DAILY RISK OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUES ALONG THE THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUE TO THINK THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW
3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. BUT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDE IN THE LOWEST COASTAL
SPOTS.
JM/SELF
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 86 67 87 63 / 20 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 88 71 88 67 / 20 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 77 87 77 / 40 20 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...JM
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