112
FXUS64 KHGX 071814
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
114 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THOUGH COULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AT THE
COAST.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH HOT DAYS AND RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
NIGHTS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS WEEK.
- SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY, THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD WANE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEHIND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FILTERS INTO SE TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OFFSHORE, KEEPING A CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST. AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, EXPECT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY.
THE FORECAST HAS TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER, WITH MONDAY/TUESDAY
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BASED OFF THE TRENDS,
I'M NOW THINKING THAT EVEN AREAS WITHIN THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND HAVE
A SHOT OF DROPPING INTO THE 60S (LIKELY UPPER 60S) ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RURAL AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST LIKELY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE COOLEST NORTHERN PINEY WOODS SPOTS
COULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S! THE HEAT STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN
THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S BY WEEK'S END. HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE AS WELL. BUT IT ISN'T FORECAST TO BE
THAT BAD FOR SE TEXAS STANDARDS.
DESPITE THE MOSTLY DRY FORECAST, THE PRESENCE OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST
AND ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAF ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
PRIMARY CHALLENGE REMAINS IN RECONCILING MODELS AND REALITY, WHICH
ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN GREAT AGREEMENT. VCSH CLEAR FOR CLL AND UTS
AND PROB30S FOR LBX AND GLS GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVITY. HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP MORNING PROB30S FOR CXO AND IAH GIVEN THE SHRA PROMPTING
MENTIONS FURTHER NORTH, AND SHRA NEAR 6R3 SHOWING THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN DESPITE WHAT THE MODELS SAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUS REALLY SHOULD BE TO THE SW OF ALL TAF SITES,
BUT GIVEN MOISTURE PRESENT AND A FUNCTIONALLY STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE AREA, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ALIGNMENT OF FACTORS TO GET SOME
RAIN, ALBEIT BRIEF. BECAUSE OF THIS, KEEP PROB30S FOR -TSRA FROM
HOU COASTWARD, BUT FUTURE CYCLE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THIS EVOLVES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA NOW WILL STALL OFFSHORE,
KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A STEEPENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND A PASSING SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL ENHANCE
NORTHEAST FLOW, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY WHEN WINDS AND SEAS MAY
WARRANT CAUTION FLAGS (WINDS 15-20 KNOTS W/ HIGHER GUSTS, SEAS
3-5 FEET). FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE OUT OF THE EAST NEAR 10-15 KNOTS. BUT OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 67 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 89 66 90 / 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 87 76 87 / 30 10 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SELF
AVIATION...LUCHS
MARINE...SELF
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